Tuesday, October 8th – Morning Forecast

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 73°F

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 48°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 79°F

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 52°F

Thursday: Sunny. High: 82

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General Discussion:

Fall-like temperatures continue for a few days before a warmup is due this weekend. Until then, be sure to have a jacket handy for these cool mornings. By Thursday afternoon, we’ll be back in the 80s as sunshine dominates the end of the week.

-Chirpich

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Forecasters: Alcorn, Beach, Chirpich

Date Issued: 10/08/2024 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

1. Above-average temperatures are expected to increase throughout the week (low to mid 80s).

2. No unsettled weather is anticipated as sunny conditions will prevail for the forecast period.

The GFS and NAM models were used for this forecast, but the GFS was the primary source as the NAM’s anomalous values called its accuracy into question. Zonal flow is identified at 300MB and expected to be present throughout mid-Missouri until the end of the forecast period. On Wednesday, a minute upper-level low will progress towards the middle of the Great Plains. This is supported with an uptick of vorticity in the forecast area at 500MB. However, due to the lack of omega / lift values at this time via soundings and 700MB analysis, as well as the lack of moisture, significant weather impacts such as precipitation and/or cloud cover are not anticipated.

A region of high-pressure at 850MB is expected to deepen over south-central Illinois on Wednesday into Thursday. The wind shift will prevent any moisture from Hurricane Milton’s landfall from reaching into the forecast area. A southerly wind shift from Texas to the mid-Missouri region will become more uniform throughout the week, leading to higher temperatures for the late work-week and into the weekend (middle to upper 80s). Regardless of the temperature increase, moisture content from the surface to 850MB will not be significant throughout the entire forecast period.

Soundings indicate a subsidence inversion on Thursday morning, leading to more sinking air in the area. This will allow for sunny conditions to continue throughout the day and the weekend ahead. At that same time, a stationary front will begin to form in the forecast area late on Thursday. Future forecasters will need to identify any weather impacts from frontogenesis for the forecast area.

-Alcorn, Chirpich