Wednesday, October 9th – Afternoon Forecast
Wednesday Night: Clear Low: 49°F
Thursday: Sunny. High: 80°F
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 52°F
Friday: Sunny. High: 83°F
Friday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 58°F
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General Discussion:
High pressure is centered overhead allowing for lots of sunshine across Mid-MO. Clear sky conditions will be present through the evening helping us cool into the upper 40s overnight Wednesday. Fog will be possible early Thursday morning, but will be confined to low lying valleys. High temperatures will rebound near 80 degrees for afternoon highs on Thursday. The gradual warming trend will continue through the end of the forecast period.
– Stevens, McCluskey
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Forecasters: Stevens, McCluskey, Thee
Date Issued: 10/09/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Above seasonal high temperatures will continue through the end of the forecast period.
- Abnormally dry conditions persist with lots of sunshine.
Current visible satellite imagery shows a clear sky across the entire state of Missouri. Sunshine remains in place thanks to high pressure dominating the Central CONUS. Moving into the evening a clear sky will remain helping guide temperatures into the upper 40s right around the seasonal average (Avg. Low: 52). With near 100% relative humidity and light winds, the CWA will have the opportunity to see some morning fog, especially in low lying areas and along river valleys.
Upper level flow shows a trough across the Central CONUS and with time the upper-level low becomes cutoff from the main flow as it sits positioned directly over the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This indicates a weakening trough as it continues to exit to the east. As the cutoff low begins to propagate to the east, a ridge that can be depicted at all levels, will begin to build in behind it . As this ridge continues to build in through the rest of the forecast period, an associated surface high-pressure system will continue to dominate across the Central CONUS and will lead to quiet conditions and lots of sunshine for the Mid-MO region. High pressure has aided in southerly winds helping to warm temperatures. Thursday high temperatures will remain nearly 10 degrees above seasonal in the lower 80s (Avg. High: 71). The trend of above seasonal temperatures will persist through the end of the forecast period with highs in the low 80s.
Mid-MO saw an unusually dry month of September and this trend has continued into October. As the dry pattern with little to no rainfall persists with no meaningful chances for precipitation in the near future, drought conditions are likely to creep back into Central Missouri. Ongoing southwesterly surface winds will continue through the weekend bringing more warm and dry air. The latest drought monitor will be released Thursday morning and with it Mid-MO will likely see some additions to at least the abnormally dry category.
-Stevens