Monday, October 14th – Afternoon Forecast

Monday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 41°F

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 56°F

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 32°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 60°F

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 36°F

=============================================================================

General Discussion:

After a very warm Saturday and a cool windy Sunday resulting from a dry cold front that moved through early Sunday morning, sunshine and average to below average temperatures (69°F) have arrived for the beginning of the work week. This results in having highs in the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the region. However, this will change once ridging starts to take effect late Wednesday morning associated with a potent area of High pressure sliding in from the west. Therefore, temperatures for the remainder of the work week will stay in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

– Bean, Carrier

=============================================================================

Forecasters: Bean, Carrier

Date Issued: 10/14/2024 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages

-Below average temperatures through Wednesday night.  

-Widespread light freeze potential for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning 

-Dry weather expected through the rest of the work week 

Looking at 250/300mb, there is currently a strong upper-level trough situated over the upper Midwest and will continue to move to the southeast over the next 48 hours. The polar jet stream is in a meridional flow and will continue to take on this feature as a potent upper-level high pressure moves into the central CONUS by 12z Wednesday. Looking at the 500mb level, once the upper-level trough moves more into the region Tuesday morning, much cooler air associated with the low-pressure trough, will provide for a cooler and sunny day and below average temperatures (upper 50s/low 60s). 

Moving down to 700mb, wrapped around moisture (cloud cover) is making its way southward tonight and early Tuesday morning, resulting in a partly cloudy sky for most of the morning on Tuesday, but clouds will quickly move out of the area, leading to the rest of Tuesday being sunny. After this wrap-around moisture passes through the CWA, 700mb moisture looks to not make a return for the rest of the forecast period. At 850mb, a ridge of high-pressure will slide down from the northwest late Tuesday afternoon and will position itself over the south-central CONUS by 21z Wednesday. This high-pressure system will keep any moisture well south and east of the forecast area, resulting in the potential for a light widespread freeze early Tuesday morning. This is due to the lack of cloud cover at night associated with the high-pressure system, which will lead to several days of a mostly clear sky and abundant sunshine. 

With all that being said, a mostly clear sky with abundant sunshine will persist through the first part of the work week as temperatures will make their way into the upper 50s to low 60s. Breezy conditions will continue for the first half of the week, but will gradually taper off through Tuesday as the low-pressure trough begins to exit the state by the evening time frame. The low by 12z Wednesday will be a crisp 32°F due to the absence of any significant cloud cover and winds funneling in more cold air into the region. 

Future forecast shifts should look to the ridge of high-pressure continuing to build into the region late into the work week with high temperatures gradually becoming average to slightly above average leading into the weekend. 

-Bean, Carrier