Tuesday, October 15th – Morning Forecast

Tuesday: Cloudy becoming sunny. High: 56°F

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 32°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 60°F

Wednesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 36°F

Thursday: Sunny. High: 68°F

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General Discussion:

Weather this morning will be a bit nippy to start with some clouds and a chance to see some infrequent drops of rain. However, as the day moves on the sky will clear and temperatures will start to rise. Pushing into the rest of the week expect little to no cloud cover with slowly rising temperatures. In turn with no clouds comes no rain which means our possible precipitation stays negligible at best.

• Beach

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Forecasters: John, Beach, Alcorn, Chirpich

Date Issued: 10/15/2024 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key messages

• Columbia is under the influence of high-pressure for the majority of the forecast period, negating cloud cover and precipitation.
• Expect fair weather for the week along with temperatures dropping into the 30s at night.

The GFS and NAM were used for this forecast as they had a strong consensus on temperatures and the overall structure of the atmosphere. Up at 300mb there is a low-height center to the northeast of the Great Lakes bringing in cold air from the north. There is a jet max over mid-Missouri as of right now, but this moves out to the east as quickly as Wednesday at 00Z. The low-height center brings divergence aloft until 15Z today. The low deepens, eventually becoming a cutoff low over the Carolinas, and a high-height center (moving in Thursday morning) will be the main driver for fair weather conditions in Missouri this week.

The upper-level trough stacks down over Columbia at 500mb on Tuesday. This morning’s rain showers are due to bands of vorticity moving through Missouri. However, vorticity signatures move east throughout the day, disappearing completely by Wednesday at 09Z.

The upper-level low and high-height centers extend down to 700mb, and moisture moves out by this afternoon due to high-pressure bringing in stable, dry air for the majority of the forecast period.

The high-pressure system to the west, as well as the low-pressure system to the east, brings in cold northern air until 18z Wednesday. Models also show CAA at 850mb Wednesday afternoon as well. The winds then become more west/southwest by 21Z Wednesday, causing temperatures to rise back up to the high 60s by Thursday. To verify the lack of moisture and cloud cover at the surface throughout the entire forecast period, soundings were consulted. These soundings showed a dry profile and no lift or forcing for any unsettled weather for the next few days. Future forecasters should take a look at temperatures continuing to warm into the weekend.

• John, Chirpich