Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 32°F
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 60°F
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low 36°F
Thursday: Sunny. High: 68°F
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 42°F
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General Discussion:
A freeze warning will remain in effect until 9 am Wednesday, as temperatures dip to near freezing Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will climb throughout the week into the 60s. Dry conditions remain, with no cloud cover or precipitation expected until after the weekend.
– Schifferdecker
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Forecasters: Hayes, Jackson, Schifferdecker
Date Issued: 10/15/2024 5:00 P.M. CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Ongoing cold air advection will erode by Wednesday and warm temperatures up into the 60s.
- High pressure will dominate the region for the remainder of the week and contribute to dry conditions.
Current cold air advection has proliferated lower-than-normal temperatures in the region, with Tuesday’s high of 57 °F well below the seasonal average of 69 °F. Frost is possible overnight, as Boone County remains under a freeze warning until Wednesday at 9 am. Sensitive vegetation should be brought indoors or covered. By Wednesday at 08Z, this CAA will fade as a high-pressure system moves in from the north.
A jet streak is present over Missouri but will move out by Wednesday at 09Z and carry the current mid-level moisture and vorticity out of the area. These factors, along with a dominant high-pressure system over the region, will remain for the rest of the week and contribute to dry and stable conditions. An upper-level trough associated with low pressure over the northeast CONUS will move out by Thursday at 00Z and be replaced by a ridge attached to a high-pressure system moving in from the Kansas-Oklahoma border.
Model soundings show a dry profile throughout the rest of the week and support the expected dry conditions. Clear conditions overnight will allow for increased radiational cooling and allow temperatures to dip into the 30s overnight on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures overnight Thursday will increase into the 40s as Winds will shift to the south on Thursday, contributing to the slight warming trend into the upper 60s during the day and into the low 40s Thursday night. Future forecasting shifts should note this warming trend and evaluate how it will persist into the weekend.
– Schifferdecker