Wednesday, October 16th – Afternoon Forecast
Wednesday Night: Clear Low: 36°F
Thursday: Sunny. High: 70°F
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 42°F
Friday: Sunny. High: 72°F
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 44°F
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General Discussion:
High pressure is currently positioned just to the Southwest of Columbia keeping moisture away, allowing for plenty of access to sunshine. Temperatures will remain below average overnight (Avg. Low: 47), but will quickly warm up with the help from winds out of the south. Southerly winds and high pressure will help keep temperatures on the rise going into the weekend.
–McCluskey
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Forecasters: Stevens, McCluskey, Thee
Date Issued: 10/16/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Below seasonal low temperatures will continue overnight, until southerly winds will help warm day time high temperatures above average (Avg. High: 68; Low: 47).
- High pressure situated over Missouri will continue to drive moisture away and keep skies clear.
Currently there is an omega block pattern that can be recognized as an upper level ridge is situated directly over the central CONUS with two troughs that are placed to either side of the ridge. An associated high-pressure system is located over the southwestern corner of Missouri helping push moisture resulting in ample sunshine over the region. As the high pressure begins to shift to the East it helps rotate our winds to a more southerly component. This wind shift will help bring in warm, dry air from the Desert Southwest helping aid day time temperatures to reach above seasonal (Avg. High: 68).
Stronger increased winds from the southwest will bring in dry air allowing for an elevated risk for fires. Mid-Missouri has not seen any measurable rain in October allowing for very dry ground conditions and fuel for said fires. The lack of moisture, dry conditions and increased winds will make any burning dangerous, as fires can spread rapidly. The SPC has issued an elevated fire risk for the ares just to the west of the CWA on Thursday because of these conditions. Any individuals needing to carry out any burning during this time should approved by emergency management officials.
Towards the conclusion of the forecast period the surface high will start to exit the region and the return flow and will park moisture just to the west of the CWA. The aforementioned trough to the west will be stationed over the Desert Southwest region by Saturday morning. This trough should be monitored by future forecasters as it could be the cause for much needed rain.
-McCluskey