Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 42°F

Friday: Sunny. High: 70°F

Friday Night: Clear. Low: 42°F

Saturday: Sunny. High: 72°F

Saturday night: Clear. Low: 46°F

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General Discussion:

Slightly above average temperatures (low 70s versus high 60s) will persist throughout the forecast period. Dry and windy conditions will promote high fire danger. No major clouds or any precipitation are expected. 

-Franciscus

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Forecasters: Franciscus, Nightingale, Russell

Date Issued: 10/17/2024 4:30 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages: 

• High Pressure to the southeast will lock in southerly flow and promote subsidence aloft keeping cloud cover or any type of active weather away 
• Low RH, lack of recent rainfall, and sustained winds will allow an elevated fire to develop (peaking Friday but still present Saturday)

As of 21:20 Z we have temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and dew points in the mid to upper 20s allowing relative humidity values to fall below 30% area wide. Due to the very dry atmosphere, the temperature will rapidly drop with the loss of daytime heating, yet as the surface high continues to slide away from our area we won’t see as low values as we did the last two nights (low of 42 which is 5 degrees warmer than last night). 

For Friday and Saturday, relatively strong low level winds, dew points around 30 and a lack of cloud cover due to ridging aloft will lead to very efficient mixing and an increased chance of fire danger. Fuels are extremely dry given that it has been more than 3 weeks since the area has received measurable rainfall. Individuals who are not professionals should consider burning a different day when fire behavior is forecast to be less erratic.

The ridging aloft should continue throughout the forecast period as the main jet stream should stay well to the north and west. Over the weekend, a significant mid and upper level trough should drop down into the four corners region before becoming cut off from the main circulation and slowly spinning down. Future forecasters should pay attention to the evolution of this trough as it approaches mid Missouri for potential rain chances and its associated frontal passage.

-Franciscus