Friday Night: Clear. Low: 42°F
Saturday: Sunny. High: 74°F
Saturday night: Clear. Low: 46°F
Sunday: Sunny. High: 76°F
Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 50°F
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General Discussion:
This homecoming weekend expect calm, inactive weather through the entire period. Sunshine and highs in the 70s will lead to ideal weather for tailgating and football!
-Schwent
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Forecasters: Schwent, Slutter, Yost
Date Issued: 10/18/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Sunshine is expected throughout the entire forecast period
- Expect gradual warming throughout homecoming weekend
An upper-level cutoff low is developing over the Four Corners region, bringing southwesterly flow to the Columbia, Missouri area. A strong ridge over the Ohio Valley is expected to gradually weaken during the forecast period. However, it will not weaken enough to allow for significant movement of the emerging cutoff low. This situation will create a persistent weather pattern throughout the forecast period.
The southerly to southwesterly flow, extending from the surface to 700 mb, combined with θe advection, will lead to increasing temperatures and moisture in the atmosphere. This process will occur gradually and will be one of two key factors driving the warming temperatures this weekend. The second factor is insolation (incoming solar radiation). Abundant sunshine is expected throughout the entire forecast period, as moisture levels in the atmosphere remain low (0.18″ PWAT at Springfield, MO, as of 12Z Friday). Despite some θe advection, it will not be robust enough to saturate the atmosphere at any level. There is a slight chance (<10%) of some cirrus clouds on Saturday, but they would be barely noticeable and would have little to no impact on the forecasted temperatures.
On Sunday, the upper low, now classified as a cutoff low, will begin to lift as the ridge to the east erodes. This will result in an enhanced mass response in the central plains. In other words, the atmospheric processes this trough drives will become stronger (θe advection, cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, etc.). The trough will then move through our area from Monday to Tuesday; however, this timing is beyond the current forecast period. Future forecasts should monitor this time frame for potential precipitation.
– Schwent