Monday: Sunny. High: 79°F
Monday Night: Slightly Cloudy. Low: 55°F
Tuesday: Sunny. High: 82°F
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 56°F
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 73°F
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General Discussion:
Nice weather heading into our week, mostly sunny with a slight chance of rain early Tuesday morning. Higher than average temperatures are expected in our region (>66°F) supplying a warmer week overall.
– Nobles, Elston
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Forecasters: Nobles, Elston
Date Issued: 10/21/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
-Above average temperatures for the start of the week. (>66°F)
-A chance of light precipitation in the Tuesday morning hours.
-A northerly wind shift will push for cooler temperatures Wednesday.
Starting at 300mb we have noticeably apparent wind divergence with stronger reflectivity on the NAM model a low pressure system from Colorado to Iowa by 15Z Tuesday. This low never makes it into Missouri although we do see some of the precautions following it such as rain chances in the Tuesday morning hours. Although we do have a slight chance for rain potential we will not see nearly enough for any drought relief. A jet stream stationed to our north containing winds of 120mph and less. This moves into Missouri Wednesday at 09Z (4am) and hangs around till 21Z (4pm) Wednesday. At 500mb we can observe that same low pressure system in Colorado and notice it strengthening as it exits Kansas and Nebraska and then weakening in Iowa. According to the NAM model this low system seems to appear stronger than we believe it will be. The vorticity shown is in our region Tuesday from 06Z-18Z (1am-1pm) again with a stronger reliance from GFS as we believe this precipitation chance to be slight.
Moving down to 700mb RH enters the region from Tuesday 9Z (4am) exits at 15Z (10am). This will help us verify that there is moisture in the atmosphere in the upper levels. An observed low pressure system is in Colorado and seems to be moving NNW as the day moves forward. At 850mb we start the week with southerly winds promoting the moisture precipitation we are expecting in the early Tuesday morning hours. Something me and my forecast partner noticed is that the NAM model is highly contaminated with moisture compared to our GFS model once we get lower to the surface. Due to this we decided to follow the GFS model and continue with our slight chance of precipitation. A wind shift from West to North helps us predict why the Wednesday high temperatures will be slightly lower than the Monday and Tuesday highs. At the surface, as we follow with the GFS model over the NAM model we can validate the precipitation that will occur will be slight and immeasurable to the drought Mid-Missouri is continuing to experience.
-Nobles, Elston