Wednesday Afternoon Forecast 10/23/2024 5:00pm
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 45°F
Thursday : Increasing Clouds. High: 75°F
Thursday Night : Scattered Storms . Low: 62°F
Friday : AM storms then Partly cloudy. High: 71°F
Friday Night : Decreasing Clouds. Low: 42°F
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General Discussion : Clear sky conditions overnight with clouds building by the afternoon hours on Thursday. Clouds build ahead of our first rain chance in 30 days, by the late evening hours. While widespread rainfall is not expected showers and storms will persist through Central Missouri into Friday morning. Cooler air arrives by Friday evening pushing temperatures below seasonal.
– Stevens, McCluskey, Thee
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Key Messages :
- Windy conditions return by the afternoon hours Thursday
- Rain chances are on the increase by late Thursday into early Friday morning with some being storms being strong.
- Slightly below seasonal temperatures return by Friday night.
Technical Discussion :
Current visible satellite imagery depicts clouds beginning to dissipate across central Missouri as this is a result of a high-pressure system centered across eastern Nebraska. Through the evening and overnight hours high pressure will keep the sky conditions clear resulting in maximized radiative cooling that will allow for temperatures to fall into the upper 40s. By Thursday a mid-level shortwave trough will begin to take hold of our weather dragging winds out of the southeast. With a tight pressure gradient over the central CONUS gusty winds will be likely through the afternoon hours with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph. With the combination of gusty winds and low relative humidity values in the 20-30% range, fire conditions will be present through mid-afternoon.
Lee cyclogenesis will be the result as a shortwave mid-level trough makes its way over the Rockies mid-day on Thursday and the resulting surface low-pressure system is expected to be parked in the northwestern corner of Missouri By Thursday night. CAMs are indicating development of storms from eastern Kansas to central Iowa around 00Z on Friday. These storms will be supported by MUCAPE values in excess of 1000J/Kg. Storms will be ahead of a cold front draped from the aforementioned surface low-pressure system that will provide ample forcing to help lift and get the storms going. While storm mode is expected to immediately go linear in organization and are expected to be elevated due to a stable layer near the surface. The storms will be on the stronger side, but most are not expected to continue that strength into mid-Missouri due to MUCAPE values across central Missouri being in the 500-1000J/Kg ballpark. The main hazard of these storms will be small hail around .25 inches or smaller. Wind shear will be robust through Friday evening thanks to a powerful low level jet with values upwards of 50 knots aiding in strong moisture transport and stronger updrafts. Modeled soundings also indicate 0-6 km bulk shear values in excess of 35-40 knots that could help aid in the development of a supercell or two, but the chances remain particularly low. Storms will arrive to the Columbia area by 05z to 07z Friday morning. Rainfall is needed badly across the region with no measurable rainfall at KCOU since September 24th. Unfortunately, this system does not look to highlight a great rain potential over the area. SREF plumes are only highlighting mean values up to a 0.25 of an inch, this is also supported by NBM model guidance hinting at rain totals between a 0.10 and a 0.25 of a inch. Any rain chances will exit the region by 14z-15z Friday.
Behind the cold front, winds will become northerly and bring in very seasonal air for this time of the year (Avg. High: 65 Low: 44). Overnight lows will fall into the lower 40s by the end of the day Friday making for a cool start to the weekend on Saturday.
– Stevens
Date: 10/23/2024 5:00 PM CDT