Thursday Morning Forecast 10/24/2024 9:00 AM
Thursday : Increasing Clouds. High: 75°F
Thursday Night : Scattered Storms. Low: 60°F
Friday : AM storms, Partly cloudy. High: 71°F
Friday Night : Decreasing Clouds. Low: 42°F
Saturday Morning: Mostly Sunny. High 65°F
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General Discussion :
Dry conditions appear to cease Thursday afternoon as relative humidity increases and a compact cold front moves into Mid-Missouri. Thursday night could see convection overnight into Friday morning, though the front will be brief and clear by the evening. Overnight storm activity is unlikely to bring much rainfall, which will hinder moisture from lingering on Saturday. Fire weather conditions remain active, as winds continue to trend from the west and atmospheric composition remains dry.
-Huebner, Bivens, Malone, Simmons
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Key Messages :
- A low pressure system over southeastern Wyoming trudges east-northeast, and with it brings a chance for rain.
- Familiar conditions of warm temperatures and sunshine will return by Friday afternoon.
- Dry air paired with an increase in wind pose a threat to the possibility of local-area fires.
Technical Discussion :
In the Western Plains, a low pressure system is centered over eastern Wyoming. Aloft, the upper-level jet centered over Oregon will aid in eastward movement, and cyclogenesis will form off of the lee side of the Rockies contributing to frontal development. The current stationary front attached to the aforementioned low in eastern Wyoming will expand and is expected to crawl east-northeast, toward Nebraska. The tail of this front is expected to develop into a cold front through eastern Kansas into Missouri. In the Columbia area, this cold front moves through late on Thursday evening overnight into Friday morning. Convection is anticipated, and there is a potential for thunderstorms. There is notable vorticity in mid-levels north of I-70, and MU CAPE values around 500 J/kg. The front will bring amounts of rain near 0.1″-0.25,” with falling temperatures and an increase in cloud cover early in the day on Friday.
Frontal effects are short-lived, as lack of significant moisture hinders much cloud development. Temperatures remain in the upper 60s on Friday, with a high of 71°F and decreasing cloud cover. Friday night will see clear skies, light winds, and familiar cooler overnight temperatures in the 60s (64°F) due to high pressure behind the front. On Saturday, sunshine will prevail and dry out any residual rain from Thursday’s storm. These conditions will prolong the drought in the Missouri River Valley as upper-level winds trend from the south and southwest, which will continue to advect dry air (<30% RH) over Missouri. Finally, ridging will begin to develop over the plains, which will leave the remainder of the weekend dry.
-Huebner