Monday Night: Clear. Low: 66°F
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 86°F
Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 65°F
Wednesday: Cloudy. High: 78°F
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low: 52°F
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General Discussion:
Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be 15-20 degrees above the seasonal average (63°F) heading into midweek. A warm, dry, and sunny Tuesday will result in an elevated fire risk, before clouds and rain chances make an appearance Wednesday.
-Bean, Carrier
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Forecasters: Bean, Carrier
Date Issued: 10/28/2024 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
-Elevated Fire danger Tuesday
-Warm, dry conditions expected tomorrow and Wednesday
-Rain chances increase late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning
The latest GFS and NAM model runs show that the polar jet stream will continue to be in a meridional flow with a significant shift in the overall pattern over the next 48 hours. An upper-level ridge currently stationed over the Midwest and southern Ohio Valley will continue to traverse eastward, while a noticeable trough continues to deepen across the Desert Southwest. This set-up will amplify the low-pressure system as it heads into the central plains, further contracting isobars throughout the forecast period and causing winds to gust out of the south.
However, Tuesday presents an interesting scenario in that continuing WAA, along with deep mixing will result in near-record temperatures, ranging from 81°F – 86°F throughout the state. Low RH values (30%) combined with strong winds from the south will create elevated fire danger conditions for Tuesday. Fire danger continues Wednesday with winds expected to continue blowing from the south with similar RH values expected for Tuesday. Temperatures will still be quite above the seasonal average (63°F), but slightly lower due to the increase in low-level cloud cover expected to move into much of the region by sunrise Wednesday caused by the approaching trough from the southwest. Rain chances start to pick up by the evening as the incoming trough to the west inches closer to our area, but it looks like the bulk of the rain will hold until early Thursday morning.
Future forecast shifts should continue to monitor the progression of the trough and the rain/storm chances that come with it.
-Bean, Carrier