Monday: Partly Sunny. High: 80°F
Monday Night: Clear. Low: 66°F
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 82°F
Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 56°F
Wednesday: Cloudy. High: 73°F
=============================================================================
General Discussion:
High temperatures are almost 20 degrees above average to start your week before increasing clouds move in. Fire weather ingredients become apparent with our continued drought, higher temperatures, and strong winds.
– Nobles, Elston
=============================================================================
Forecasters: Nobles, Elston
Date Issued: 10/28/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
-Above average high temperatures for this time of year.
-Fire weather becomes hazardous due to atmospheric conditions.
-Rain expected outside of our forecast period.
Currently on satellite we have high level clouds in our area, but these should fizzle out as the day goes on bringing clear skies and sunshine to our viewing area. At 250mb we have northerly flow with a large trough starting to build off to our west. As we go through the day Monday and Tuesday the trough continues to slide its way to the east and reaching us by Wednesday afternoon. This will bring southerly flow to our area starting on Tuesday evening all the way through Wednesday. Due to the ridge off to our southeast, it is keeping the jet stream north of our viewing area. If this were to be farther south the jet stream would be more over our viewing area and therefore bringing a higher chance for storm development during our forecast period. Moving on to 500mb we currently have zonal flow across Missouri with very small amounts of vorticity, but we don’t expect any precipitation to occur as there is little to no moisture at this time. On Tuesday, we see an area of high pressure building over the Mississippi and Alabama border and an area of low pressure forming over Idaho and Wyoming. These both move easterly bringing some pockets of vorticity to Mid-Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday.
At 700mb, we have no moisture currently in Missouri with zonal flow this will continue throughout the day Monday and Tuesday. With this we also expect increased fire weather conditions due to our continued dry conditions, and the stronger winds paired with the above average temperatures. Both the NAM and the GFS have continuity with the timing of Relative Humidity into Wednesday night. Moving down to 850mb, we currently have SW flow advecting little moisture into our area. We expect increasing cloud cover on Wednesday as the flow is still SW and the LLJ is amplifying. This will bring windy conditions (50kts) to our area as well as the chance for storms Wednesday night. Future forecasters should look out for storms on Wednesday night as they could be strong to severe.
-Nobles, Elston