Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 67°F
Wednesday: Partly sunny, breezy. High: 80°F
Wednesday Night: Thunderstorms. Low 52°F
Thursday: Morning showers, clearing by afternoon. High: 62°F
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 39°F
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General Discussion:
Strong and gusty winds will remain in the region through Wednesday and keep the risk for fire weather. Thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
– Schifferdecker
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Forecasters: Hayes, Jackson, Schifferdecker
Date Issued: 10/29/2024 5:00 P.M.
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A strong pressure gradient is proliferating strong winds in the region and southerly flow will keep temperatures well above seasonal averages.
- A cold front will move through the area late Wednesday night, bringing storms into the area.
- High pressure will build in behind this front and encourage CAA, which will tank temperatures into the low 60s on Thursday.
Tuesday’s high temperature in Columbia peaked at 82°F, nearly 20 degrees higher than the seasonal average high of 62°F. The daily high fell short of reaching the historical high of 86°F in 1937. Above normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday as a mid-level trough moves over Missouri and encourages southerly flow into the region. The region is between a low-pressure system over the Rockies and a high-pressure system off the Atlantic Coast, leading to a steep pressure gradient and causing gusty winds in the 15 to 20 mph range. This pressure gradient will continue through Wednesday and lead to another windy day. Continued southerly flow will also warm temperatures in Columbia into the low 80s for Wednesday, leading to similar conditions as to today. With this, an elevated fire weather risk will stick around with gusty winds and a relative humidity sub 50%. Outdoor burning should be avoided or limited until later this week when temperatures decrease, and more moisture moves in.
A cold front will advance into the region by Wednesday night and bring the chance of strong thunderstorms. An upper-level jet streak will follow this cold front, bringing additional divergence into the region and proving lift for thunderstorms. The NAM and GFS agree upon weakening mid-level vorticity by early Thursday morning, but abundant mid to lower-level moisture and omega will provide enough fuel to guide thunderstorm development. The timing for these storms is when both of the previously mentioned models show rainfall between 06Z and 09Z Thursday. The NBM strongly indicates nearly half an inch of rain for the Columbia area. Model soundings indicate decent low-level lift that may encourage thunderstorm development, but low CAPE values below 600 J/kg will limit strong thunderstorm potential. Still, strong winds are possible as this system moves through and the region will at least get some well-needed rain, as Columbia is still nearly 6 inches below yearly average rainfall for October. After the passage of the cold front, a high-pressure system will build in and bring much cooler air into the region. Strong cold air advection by 18Z Thursday will limit daytime heating to the low 60s, much closer to seasonal average.
– Schifferdecker