Wednesday Afternoon Forecast 10/30/2024 5:00pm
Wednesday Night: Thunderstorms overnight. Low: 54°F
Thursday : Decreasing Clouds. High: 60°F
Thursday Night : Partly Cloudy. Low: 39°F
Friday : Mostly Sunny. High: 64°F
Friday Night : Partly Cloudy. Low: 48°F
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General Discussion : Beneficial rain is on the way as a cold front is positioned through central Kansas and Iowa. This cold front will help bring in strong to severe thunderstorms overnight through the early morning hours on Thursday. Behind this cold front we can expect a cool down of temperatures as they return to around seasonal.
– Stevens, McCluskey, Thee
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Key Messages :
- Strong to severe storms are expected overnight Wednesday through early morning on Thursday, bringing in drought relief and measurable rainfall.
- Cooler temperatures will also return behind the cold front, returning temperatures to around average (Avg. HI: 62; Low: 42).
Technical Discussion :
Currently, a surface low-pressure system is situated from the northeastern corner of Kansas through the panhandle of Oklahoma. These lows are attached by a significant cold front draping across western Texas all the way into eastern Canada. The current placement of the upper-level trough puts mid-Missouri into the right exit region of the upper level jet streak. This has allowed for large-scale forcing for ascent and ongoing storm development along the entirety of the cold front. These storms are expected to progress eastward into the CWA and cause localized impacts. Model soundings indicate surface based CAPE around 500 J/kg. This instability will allow for storms to stay severe as they advance into the area. Inverted V-shaped columns can be recognized alongside moderate DCAPE values ranging from 500-1000 J/kg indicate wind gusts potentially reaching 60-70mph.0- 3km bulk shear values in excess of 40 knots along with shear vectors in the north-northeast direction will help promote the possibility for quick spin up or two. As the storms progress eastward, they are expected to become a large QLCS before entering the CWA. This line of storms is expected to impact the area around 04-06Z.
Ensemble plumes were analyzed to get a good idea on the anticipated rainfall amounts. After many days of minimal rain, expected rainfall amounts will be near half an inch up to an inch. This beneficial rain will help relieve some drought impacts across the region. After this system exits through the region, cooler temperature and dry conditions will continue through Saturday morning. An area of high pressure will advance into the region starting Thursday night directly behind the cold front. Cooler temperatures behind the cold front will help aid temperatures to return back to near average throughout the rest of the forecast period with the help of northerly winds. Thursday daytime high temperatures will drop 20 degrees below what they were Wednesday with highs reaching the 60 degree mark. As clouds start to taper away throughout the day on Thursday it will allow for overnight lows to be below seasonal (Avg. Low: 42). Dry conditions will continue throughout Saturday early morning, however future forecasters should anticipate more much needed rainfall this weekend.
– McCluskey
Date: 10/30/2024 5:00 PM CDT