Wednesday: Partly sunny, breezy. High: 80°F
Wednesday Night: Thunderstorms. Low 52°F
Thursday: Morning showers, clearing by afternoon. High: 62°F
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 39°F
Friday: Clear. High: 66°F
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General Discussion:
Well above seasonal temperatures continue (62°F) with gusty winds until a cold front comes through late tonight into early tomorrow morning bringing a good chance for severe weather. Temperatures late in the week will return to seasonal averages.
– Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy
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Forecasters: Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy
Date Issued: 10/30/2024 9:00 A.M.
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages –
- Gusty winds (15-20mph) bringing well above average high temperatures (avg: 62) across our area throughout the day.
- Widespread thunderstorms are expected associated with a cold front moving in around 06Z late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Damaging winds with a chance of a few scattered tornadoes.
- The cold front will bring in colder temperatures closer to seasonal averages (avg: 62) and breezy conditions Thursday into Friday just in time for Halloween.
An upper-level trough located in the northwest plains has allowed strong WAA into our area bringing ample amounts of moisture with it. As this trough continues to move east, it starts to tilt negatively with strengthening upper-level winds and vorticity bringing in a strong surface cold front. Storms are expected to initiate along this cold front in northeastern Kansas quickly combining into a squall line as it moves to the east entering central Missouri around 06Z. MUCAPE values aren’t going to be that impressive today (~50 J/kg) until the cold front begins to move into our area bringing in more instability (~250 J/kg). Damaging winds (>60mph) are expected due to strong updrafts out ahead of the storm track with scattered tornadoes not out of the question due to good 0-1km shear values around 40kts. from the southwest. If there are any spin-ups, they will be brief due to the QLCS structure of the storm. The NBM depicts a 45% chance of greater than 1 in. of rain overnight tonight as the heavy line of thunderstorms moves through.
As the system moves further east out of our area, our winds will sharply shift from the north bringing in colder air that will be around seasonal averages (avg: 62). We will still see some lingering showers until the afternoon on Thursday with conditions clearing by the late afternoon as a surface high begins to move into our area from the southwest. Conditions for Halloween night are looking favorable with chilly temperatures just right for trick-or-treating. Temperatures will begin to rebound back to above average as the high pressure sets in on Friday with clear conditions.
- Latlip
Tuesday, October 29th – Afternoon Forecast
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 67°F
Wednesday: Partly sunny, breezy. High: 80°F
Wednesday Night: Thunderstorms. Low 52°F
Thursday: Morning showers, clearing by afternoon. High: 62°F
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 39°F
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General Discussion:
Strong and gusty winds will remain in the region through Wednesday and keep the risk for fire weather. Thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
– Schifferdecker
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Forecasters: Hayes, Jackson, Schifferdecker
Date Issued: 10/29/2024 5:00 P.M.
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A strong pressure gradient is proliferating strong winds in the region and southerly flow will keep temperatures well above seasonal averages.
- A cold front will move through the area late Wednesday night, bringing storms into the area.
- High pressure will build in behind this front and encourage CAA, which will tank temperatures into the low 60s on Thursday.
Tuesday’s high temperature in Columbia peaked at 82°F, nearly 20 degrees higher than the seasonal average high of 62°F. The daily high fell short of reaching the historical high of 86°F in 1937. Above normal temperatures will continue into Wednesday as a mid-level trough moves over Missouri and encourages southerly flow into the region. The region is between a low-pressure system over the Rockies and a high-pressure system off the Atlantic Coast, leading to a steep pressure gradient and causing gusty winds in the 15 to 20 mph range. This pressure gradient will continue through Wednesday and lead to another windy day. Continued southerly flow will also warm temperatures in Columbia into the low 80s for Wednesday, leading to similar conditions as to today. With this, an elevated fire weather risk will stick around with gusty winds and a relative humidity sub 50%. Outdoor burning should be avoided or limited until later this week when temperatures decrease, and more moisture moves in.
A cold front will advance into the region by Wednesday night and bring the chance of strong thunderstorms. An upper-level jet streak will follow this cold front, bringing additional divergence into the region and proving lift for thunderstorms. The NAM and GFS agree upon weakening mid-level vorticity by early Thursday morning, but abundant mid to lower-level moisture and omega will provide enough fuel to guide thunderstorm development. The timing for these storms is when both of the previously mentioned models show rainfall between 06Z and 09Z Thursday. The NBM strongly indicates nearly half an inch of rain for the Columbia area. Model soundings indicate decent low-level lift that may encourage thunderstorm development, but low CAPE values below 600 J/kg will limit strong thunderstorm potential. Still, strong winds are possible as this system moves through and the region will at least get some well-needed rain, as Columbia is still nearly 6 inches below yearly average rainfall for October. After the passage of the cold front, a high-pressure system will build in and bring much cooler air into the region. Strong cold air advection by 18Z Thursday will limit daytime heating to the low 60s, much closer to seasonal average.
– Schifferdecker