10/31/2024 5:00 pm
Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 40°F
Friday: Clear. High: 62°F
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 46°F
Saturday: Increasing Clouds. High: 68°F
Saturday Night: Widespread Rain and Thunderstorms. Low: 60°F
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General Discussion : Due to the front that moved through Thursday night, cooler temperatures are following along with mostly clear skies. These fair conditions persist through Friday. This weekend, on Saturday night, there will be a large storm system bringing widespread heavy rainfall prompting some much needed drought relief.
– Nightingale, Daniel
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Key Messages :
- Large storm system bringing moderate to heavy rain towards the end of the weekend leading to drought relief.
- A slight break in temperatures due to southerly winds bringing a higher moisture content and warmer temps.
Technical Discussion : As of 21Z, we are in a postfrontal atmosphere, with CAA following due to the effects of the low pressure system that has now passed through our area. Thursday night, expect conditions favorable for trick-or-treating due to cool, dry air following the FROPA a from earlier. Conditions will remain fair with the cool temperatures, low relative humidity and minimal cloud coverage through Friday and Friday night. Saturday, upper level clouds and moisture content of the atmosphere will increase as the day goes on, causing the clouds to grow closer to the surface.
This vertical growth culminates with a large storm system bringing widespread heavy rainfall across the forecast area. Both the GFS and the NAM soundings display large PWATs and a saturated atmosphere, but no CAPE and a positive lifted index. Consequently, hail and other severe weather is not expected, although the low level jet is at 52 knots or 60 mph. Wind gusts of up to 30 mph should also be expected. Positively, where there is widespread rain ranging between 1-1.5”, drought relief is sure to follow.
We are back to average temperatures, with low temperatures in the mid 40s and high temperatures in the upper 60s. The average high for this time of year is 62°F and the average low is 42°F. Throughout the weekend, surface temperatures will warm due to southerly winds and moisture content moving into the area. This brief nuance will conclude with a sizable trough that begins to take effect towards the end of the forecast period. Future forecasters should take note of this large trough and the active weather that surrounds it.
-Nightingale, Daniel