Thursday, November 7th – Morning Forecast
Thursday: Decreasing clouds, High: 59°F
Thursday Night: Clear, Low: 39°F
Friday: Increasing clouds, High: 61°F
Friday Night: Cloudy, Low: 46°F
Saturday: AM Showers, High: 59°
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General Discussion:
Dry and cool conditions, with temperatures in the upper 50’s and low 60’s, stick around as we head into the weekend. Rain chances return early Saturday, bringing clouds and abundant moisture.
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Forecasters: Bivens, Huebner, Malone
Date Issued: 11/07/2024 9:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Seasonable temperatures extend throughout our forecast period.
- Rain chances return Friday night into Saturday morning.
Ridging over our region has kept us in a period of dry and cooler conditions. A stationary front is draped off to our west, and will bring in cloudy conditions as it propagates into our area. Northeasterly winds are advecting cooler temperatures, paired with pathetic moisture values. These values will increase Friday afternoon, as moisture is bound to advect from the Gulf of Mexico, circulating with a low pressure system to our west. An increase in atmospheric moisture, paired with notable Omega values, will introduce cloud formation and possible showers into the late evening hours on Friday.
This low pressure system, currently stationed over the Four Corners region, is traveling eastward and will bring associated divergence aloft Friday night into Saturday morning. Vorticity lobes begin to shoot our way beginning Friday afternoon, and gain strength going into Saturday. The highest circulation in the mid-levels will clip northwestern Missouri, with significant spin also appearing over mid-Missouri.
Saturday morning showers are expected, with ensemble precipitation values approximately a quarter of an inch. These showers will continue to cycle for the majority of our daylight hours, but will begin to move out in the late afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected, as our severe storm indices suggest a lack of adequate instability.
-Bivens
Wednesday, November 6th – Afternoon Forecast
Wednesday Night: Patchy Fog Low: 40°F
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 59°F
Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 42°F
Friday: Mostly Sunny. High: 61°F
Friday Night: Increasing Clouds Low: 48°F
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General Discussion:
Dry conditions have come to an end after a very active stretch of weather. A more calm stretch of weather before the weekend with dry conditions and seasonal temperatures. Rain chances will increase by early Saturday morning.
-Stevens, McCluskey
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Forecasters: Stevens, McCluskey
Date Issued: 11/06/2024 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Fog will be possible heading into the morning on Thursday.
- Seasonal temperatures continue through the end of the forecast period.
- Rain chances return by early in the morning Saturday.
Current visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny sky conditions across central Missouri. Some high clouds continue to filter through eastern Missouri, but for the most part clear sky conditions look to continue. On Thursday morning, clear sky conditions along with high relative humidity values near the surface and light winds less than 5 mph will combine for the recipe of patchy fog, especially in low lying valleys and near rivers. Modeled soundings from both the NAM and GFS at KCOU show an temperature inversion just above the surface which will also be key in any fog development. By mid-morning all fog should have dissipated leading to mostly sunny sky conditions through the rest of the day Thursday.
Upper-level flow shows a strong ridge that has built in across the eastern United States, along with the ridging in place an associated surface high-pressure feature is present across northern Iowa. This is allowing for winds out of the northeast and is bringing in a cooler air-mass. Through the day on Thursday, the aforementioned northeasterly winds will continue to lead temperatures in the upper 50s right around our seasonal average (Avg high: 59). Overnight lows will be near the 40 degree mark through the end of the week, although an increase in clouds by Friday night will result in morning lows on Saturday staying in the upper 40s and nearing the 50 degree mark.
While temperatures look to stay very seasonal through the end of the forecast period, more moisture and a few more clouds will progress into the region by Friday midday. This will be the result of a trough that is currently across the western CONUS becoming cutoff as it progresses towards the region. Moisture will transport into the region thanks to southeasterly winds, as the moisture sits in place along with forcing for ascent from diffluence associated with the upper-level jet streak, the likelihood for clouds and a couple sprinkles will return by Friday night into Saturday. The greatest amount of moisture does not arrive until mid-morning on Saturday. SREF, GEFS, and NBM models are depicting that we may see up to a trace by 12z Saturday, but future forecasters should be aware of rain chances throughout the day on Saturday.
– Stevens