Campus Weather Forecast

Thursday, November 7th – Afternoon Forecast

Thursday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 39°F

Friday:  Mostly Cloudy. High: 59°F

Friday Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low: 46°F

Saturday: Widespread Showers. High: 59°F

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in lower levels. Low: 50°F

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General Discussion: 

Increasing clouds begin overnight as a low pressure system off to the west approaches, bringing significant chances for rain throughout the weekend. Temperatures remain seasonal, with highs in the high 50s during the day and lows in the high 30s and low 40s. ============================================================================= 

Forecasters: Daniel, Franciscus, Nightingale

Date Issued: 11/07/2024 5:00 PM CST 

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages: 

• Cool, cloudy conditions return for the weekend bringing moderate rain Friday night and Saturday.
• Low pressure system engulfs tropical moisture from Hurricane Rafael giving our area a soaking rainfall. 

After a midweek dry period and a quick break from the rain, a positively tilted trough approaches Missouri come Friday night. Currently, zonal flow aloft throughout the midwest keeps temperatures cooler overnight and into Friday. As the trough becomes negatively tilted, it will eject overnight Friday keeping impactful weather to a minimum due to a lack of significant instability. Diffluence aloft at 12z Saturday moves across the state after a diffluent pattern causes lift to the system bringing moderate rainfall throughout Friday night and Saturday. A kink in the height contours at 12z Saturday may be an indicator of some sort of boundary, observed on both the GFS and NAM models. 

A warm front moves across the midwest starting Friday evening at 21z, hitting northern Missouri. As the low pressure system spins Northeast, the system pulls in mid-level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico where Hurricane Rafael exists currently, conducting WAA in mid-Missouri. A shortwave on the NAM around 18z Saturday in the mid-levels shows potential for a boundary causing lift, perhaps allowing rain to linger until overnight Saturday.

Lower-level moisture enters the state around 21z Friday after a 3-day dry period. Significant levels of negative omega provide lift to the system, producing a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms reaching down into the southern, Gulf-bordering states. Moisture from the Gulf gets brought in by the low-level jet, thus giving way to the WAA in the lower-levels. Rain will most likely begin during the late overnight hours Friday peaking during the day Saturday, moving through the state by Sunday 06z. A weak cold front also approaches the area overnight Saturday, about 03z Sunday, with a noticeable wind shift at 850mb. Because of the significant trough, the warm front and cold front occlude throughout the day Saturday, leaving temperatures only about 7-10 degrees warmer than earlier in the week. Fog is possible during the late overnight hours Saturday and early morning hours Sunday if sufficient radiation cooling can occur, somthing future forecasters should be aware of. At the end of the forecast, zonal flow aloft returns.

-Daniel