Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Low: 49°F

Saturday: Steady rain. High: 56°F

Saturday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: 47°F

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High: 60°F

Sunday night: Mostly clear. Low: 45°F

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General Discussion:
Expect a rainy start to the weekend as showers move through the area Saturday morning before clouds start to make their way out of Columbia. High temperatures will remain cool (mid 50s to low 60s) as a weak cold front moves through Saturday night.

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Forecasters: Schwent, Slutter, Yost

Date Issued: 11/08/2024 6:00 PM CST

Key Messages:

• A trough is moving its way through the region and will bring rain with it before dry air is advected into Missouri.
• Clouds will be widespread before clearing out through the end of the weekend

Technical Discussion:

Currently, there is a closed low at 300MB that is settled over Colorado, with strong winds on the SE edge of it. This closed low is bringing precipitation across Oklahoma and Kansas, accompanied by the LLJ that is helping the moisture advect into the area from the Gulf. This is also increasing cloud cover across much of the Rockies and Upper Mississippi Valley. This moisture is going to be a factor in Columbia’s weather for the beginning half of the forecast period. 

As the mid-level trough advances through the area, ample vorticity will be advected and make its way through the area, especially Iowa. Both the GFS and NAM agree on vorticity bands crossing through MO Friday night into Saturday morning. Shortwave pockets can be seen over Mid-Missouri at Sat 12z and Sat 18z, which will help initiate showers. The LLJ, which is currently centered over KS and OK, will move east over MO overnight Friday into Saturday morning, inducing moisture advection. When this moves through, the closed low and LLJ will bring likely (90%) precipitation (0.06 to 0.24 in) Saturday morning into the early afternoon hours. Model soundings indicate weak instability aloft, which could be supportive of a rumble or two of thunder. Rain chances will linger (20%) into the evening as this moisture band moves through the forecast area. 

A weak cold front will move through Saturday night, forcing dry air into the region. Because of this, cloud cover is expected to decrease throughout Saturday night into Sunday, providing mostly clear conditions for the remainder of the forecast period. Due to the weak temperature gradient of this front, minimal temperature changes are expected, remaining around 60℉ (near average) as the high for Sunday. Nighttime low temperatures will dip into the mid-40s through the evening hours of Sunday into Monday. 

• Slutter