Tuesday Night: High clouds. Low: 43°F

Wednesday: Afternoon showers. High: 57°F

Wednesday Night: Cloudy. Low 43°F

Thursday: Sunny. High: 57°F

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 35°F

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General Discussion:

Up to 0.25″ of rain are expected with showers moving through Wednesday afternoon. Dry and near seasonal temperatures (Avg: 57 °F) will follow these showers. 

– Schifferdecker

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Forecasters: Hayes, Jackson, Schifferdecker

Date Issued: 11/12/2024 5:00 P.M.

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

• A cold front will move through the region Wednesday and bring afternoon rain chances.
• High pressure will build in Thursday and lead to sunny and dry conditions.

Satellite imagery as shown at 23Z Tuesday depicts upper-level clouds moving into the region throughout the afternoon and building in overnight. This cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures above average in the low 40s, as compared to the seasonal average low of 37 °F. These clouds are associated with the subtropical jet, which is advecting cloud cover into the region overnight and into Wednesday.

A deep upper-level trough is currently just west of the Rocky Mountains and will advance eastward as the subtropical jet stream and polar jet stream combine and form an upper-level low and a cold front that will bring a chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. The GFS and NAM models generally agree with a line of mid-level moisture moving into the region by Wednesday 18-21Z. In addition, strong mid-level vorticity and upper-level wind divergence will also advance into the area during the same time and bring rain into the region in the mid to late afternoon on Wednesday. The LLJ will move into the area by 18Z Wednesday, transporting additional moisture. However, thunderstorms are not expected, as model soundings indicate weak low-level wind shear and a CAPE value near zero. Up to 0.25″ of rainfall is expected in the afternoon on Wednesday, with rain chances tapering off by 03Z Thursday.

Following the passage of this cold front, high pressure will build in and lead to drier conditions for Thursday and into the weekend. Clear conditions Thursday will allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 50s. Limited cloud cover is also expected Thursday night, which will allow for radiational cooling and cause temperatures to dip into the mid-30s. Future forecasting shifts should look into CAA over Kansas on Friday afternoon at 18Z Friday and see how it advances into the region. 

– Schifferdecker