Thursday Afternoon. December 5th, 2024

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Windy. Low: 20°F

Friday:Mostly Sunny. High: 37°F

Friday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 25°F

Saturday: Sunny. High: 50°F

Saturday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 35°F

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General Discussion:

Cool conditions along with below average temperatures to start the forecasting period. Starting on Saturday, winds will turn to be from the south bringing warmer air. Clouds will increase starting Saturday Night bringing the possibility for precip Sunday. 

– Nightingale, Franciscus

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Forecasters: Nightingale, Franciscus, Daniel

Date Issued: 12/05/2024 5:00 PM.

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages:

• Arctic cold temperatures for Thursday night and Friday. 
• Temperatures will moderate as we go into the weekend. 
• Ridging to our West leads to calm conditions and clear sky for Friday and most of Saturday 

As of 21Z, we are in a split flow regime with the polar jet to the North and the Subtropical jet to the south. Temperatures are well below average, with lows in the high teens (average is in the upper 40s) to begin the forecast period. There is Northwest flow going on right now, which will switch to Southerly, bringing some warmer air. The WAA is pretty weak due to the pathetic low-level jet. 

There is surface high pressure moving in starting on Thursday night. The radiational cooling that is associated with this high pressure will decrease temperatures due to subsidence and no clouds. Both models are conducive to mid-low level clouds, which will halt our cooling process. There is some uncertainty about timing, an earlier will keep us warmer, and later will keep us cooler. 

The pattern moves to a positively tilted trough with the center of the trough over the desert southwest starting Friday night. The forecast area will receive some effects from the trough as we are located to the west, and carrying into Sunday. Saturday, the winds will be backing, which leads to the warmer air coming from the South. The trough will pull warm and moist air into the region, before a cold front Sunday night pushes through bringing our temperatures back below seasonal averages. 

-Nightingale, Franciscus