Friday Night: Mostly Clear – Low 62°F

Saturday: Sunny – High 88°F

Saturday Night: Clear Sky – 61°F

Sunday: Sunny – 77°F

Sunday Night: Clear Sky – 46°F

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General Discussion: Expect a pathetic cold front to pass Friday night, with gusty winds (15-20mph) possible, however this will have little effect on temperatures, with an overnight low in the 60s, and very unseasonably warm temperatures tomorrow (upper 80s). Another cold front is then expected to pass overnight Saturday, with the high temperature Sunday struggling to hit 80. A clear sky is expected throughout the entire forecast period.

-Schwent

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Forecasters: Schwent, Slutter, Yost

Date Issued: 10/4/24 5:00 p.m.

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages: 

• A clear sky is expected over the weekend
• High temperatures will be much above average (avg. 73) nearing 90 degrees on Saturday
• A cold front will pass through Saturday night into Sunday, bringing with it gusty winds (15-20 mph), dry air (dew points in the 30s), and seasonal temperatures (70s)

As of Friday at 22z, we are in the back end of a positively tilted trough, with the upper level subsidence that is associated with that. As a result, despite there being some moisture at 850mb, there is not a cloud in the sky as of 22z Friday afternoon. A stationary front is also draped close to our location, and will pass as a cold front later this evening. The front can not be characterized as anything but pathetic, as despite it’s best efforts, lows will still be 5-10 degrees higher than they were last night (low 60s). Moisture content is also expected to remain about the same as yesterday, with dew points remaining in the upper 50s.

Saturday, a subtle, but non-trivial ridge builds in overnight, kicking off significant warming. This will be further aided by a mature trough to our north, which will result in a potent surface low along the Central US/Canada border. This surface low will cause our winds to come out of the south (wind gusts up to 20mph), aiding in warm air advection, and as a result very warm temperatures for this time of year, perhaps approaching 90 degrees. This heat will be short lived though, as the same low that has caused our heat will also bring with it a somewhat potent cold front.

The passage of this front is expected between 4am and 7am on Sunday. Despite a dew point gradient on the order of 30 degrees between the warm side and the cool side of this front, lackluster moisture aloft and the displacement of the upper trough to the north will result in no chances for precipitation. Once the front passes, expect a significant cooling of temperatures, back to more seasonal for this time of year (high in the upper 70s), and calmer winds (5-10 mph sustained). Overnight, the low temperature is expected to be below average (avg. 50), perhaps down to the lower 40s. This will be due to calm winds, and little cloud cover, the surface will be a very efficient long-wave radiator.

– Schwent