• Friday Evening Forecast
  Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 60°F
  Saturday: Mostly sunny. High: 89°F
  Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 56°F
  Sunday: Decreasing clouds. High: 74°F
• Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Low: 41°F
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  General Discussion:
  Warm temperatures Saturday with increasing moisture will cease when a cold front moves through early Sunday morning, bringing more Autumn-like temperatures to our area. Expect some light cloud cover through the beginning of the weekend, decreasing on Sunday. 
• – Slutter
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  Forecasters: Slutter, Schwent, Yost
  Date Issued: 10/11/2024 06:00 PM CDT
  Technical Discussion:
  Key Messages:
• – High pressure will remain throughout Saturday evening, giving us the warmer temperatures we’ve been experiencing the last few days. 
• – A cold front is expected to move in on Sunday morning. 
• – Stronger wind gusts (20-25 mph) are forecasted after the cold front moves through.
  
  Technical discussion:

With both the polar and subtropical jets north and south of our forecast area, respectively, there has been a warm air mass (80s) centered over Mid-Missouri, accompanied by light southerly winds (5 kts) which have helped keep the air mass from moving. Dry air has also been a feature of this air mass, along with the lack of cloud cover we’ve been seeing. This has aided in warmer temperatures during the day and radiational cooling at night. 

Upper level flow is zonal, and will remain that way until late Saturday. Until then, Saturday’s temperatures will be the warmest (89°F) of the week due to continued mostly sunny conditions and southerly winds. These temperatures will be near record for this time of year (Record: 94°F in 1899). Throughout Saturday evening, increasing moisture is expected to bring more cloud cover, resulting in warmer low temperatures overnight (56°F). 

Saturday evening, an upper level trough will start digging SE from Canada that is producing a cold front. The cold front is expected to move through the area Sunday morning. This cold front will bring drier conditions unlike what will be seen early this weekend (Friday night through Saturday). After the cold front passes, both the GFS and NAM agree on increasing wind gusts (20-25 mph) through the end of the forecast period. The gusts are courtesy of the pressure gradient getting tighter after the frontal passage, generating strong cold air advection which will drop our temperatures (High of 74°F, low of 41°F) on Sunday. Because of these wind gusts and drier conditions, there is a small chance for heightened fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon, so be wary of controlled burns and starting fires. By Monday morning, we will have a high pressure moving into the area that will give us more cloud-free conditions.

• – Yost, Slutter