Monday: Mostly Sunny. High: 60°F

Monday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 41°F

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 56°F

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 32°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 60°F

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General Discussion:

Temperatures to begin the work week will be chilly as both the highs and lows will be 10-15°F below the average for this time of year. The first frost could occur Tuesday night as temperatures drop into the low 30s for most of Mid Missouri.

– Blodgett, Nobles, Elston

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Forecasters: Blodgett, Nobles, Elston

Date Issued: 10/14/2024 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages

-Low pressure off to our northeast will bring northerly winds to our area for the beginning of the work week

-Chance at the first frost due to these northerly winds and below average temperatures

Starting at 250mb we have NNW flow over Missouri as there is a low pressure system off to our northeast in the Great Lakes region. This flow will continue for most of the day Tuesday, but will shift to northeast flow as a high pressure builds into our west. This high pressure will stay just to our northwest centered over the Nebraska/Iowa boarder for most of Wednesday bringing us NNE winds. At 500mb we can see that the low pressure system is still situated to our northeast over the great lakes. As the low moves off to the east we will begin to see widespread area of vorticity move into the area from the north. The NAM and the GFS are in some disagreement about when exactly this vorticity will occur in our region, but I chose to lean towards the GFS due to the timing and the strength of the upper level vorticity. As the high pressure moves through Wednesday it pushes away the upper level vorticity off to our east.

Moving down to 700mb the area of low pressure has shifted a little bit to the east, and is now centered over northwestern New York. As it spins counterclockwise away from our area to the east it will bring some moisture into our area from the north. I expect there to be some cloud cover overhead Monday night into Tuesday keeping our temperatures a bit warmer. These clouds will clear out Tuesday as high pressure builds into our west keeping all of the moisture off to our east. At 850mb it is the same story as some moisture from the low in the northeast tries to make its way into our area, but the high pressure that is centered over central Kansas keeps all of the moisture just off to our east. At the surface we currently have winds from the north these conditions will continue throughout the day Monday and Tuesday. This will bring our temperatures to below average as we have a chance for our first frost Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

-Blodgett, Nobles, Elston