Tuesday Morning: . Mostly Sunny. High: 84°F

Tuesday Afternoon: Mostly Clear. Low: 56°F

Wednesday Morning: Partly Cloudy. High: 73°F

Wednesday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 47°F

Thursday Morning: Mostly Cloudy. High: 78°F

General Discussion: The weather pattern across Columbia, Missouri, is influenced by a combination of high pressure to the Northeast and an approaching low-pressure system from the southwest. This setup will bring high winds and sunshine keeping us dry today! This gives us an increase in fire danger so avoid unnecessary burning today! Later on in the week we should see more clouds, lower temperatures, and even some precipitation having us feel more like we are in Fall again.– John

Technical Discussion:

Key messages 

• There is an elevated fire weather risk issued for today as dry conditions continue. 

• Late in the week a cold front develops over the Great Plains bringing the possibility of unsettled weather. 

For most of this forecast, the NAM and GFS were considered; however, near the surface the NAM started to be unreliable and was dismissed. Starting at 300mb, there is some upper-level divergence induced by a low-pressure system in Missouri that sticks around until 00z Wednesday. This upper-level divergence could bring some cloud cover for today allowing temperatures to stay warmer tonight (mid-50s). As Tuesday transitions into Wednesday, a trough starts to dive into the Glaciated Plains of Missouri. Associated with the trough, there is frontogenesis over the Great Plains area starting late Wednesday through Thursday. 

Moving down into 500mb, there is some vorticity associated with the aforementioned low-pressure system. As the vorticity moves out of the region, more starts to develop over the Great Plains further supporting frontogenesis. Jumping to 700mb, there is some relative humidity to start the week that quickly moves out of the area with the low. Along with the humidity, there is a small amount of lift which could lead to low amounts of cloud cover for Tuesday into early Wednesday. However, as these conditions move out of the Missouri region, more moisture starts to push in as the cold front starts to develop late Thursday. Along with this front, stronger lift moves into the area which could lead some showers to develop late Thursday. 

Pushing into 850mb, there is some moisture associated with the low on Tuesday. However, the principal message should be that there will be stronger winds to start off the week. These stronger winds, coupled with the dry weather, could lead to dangerous fire weather conditions. The wind will die down a little on Wednesday, but Thursday, as the cold front starts to develop, winds will pick up which could bring back more dangerous fire weather conditions later in the week. Along with these winds, moisture will start to advect into the viewing area which could bring some rain and lower the fire weather risk. To support the pondered theories in this AFD, soundings were consulted. Starting off the week there are dry conditions and warm temperatures displayed throughout the soundings. These soundings also show strong winds at 850mb for the majority of the week. Finally, late in this week some mixed layer instability starts to build as the cold front starts to push in from the Great Plains. Future forecasters should be aware of the building instability as the week marches on, which could lead to some strong to severe storms late in the week. 

Forecasters: Chirpich, Beach, Alcorn, John

Date Issued: 10/22/2024 9:00 AM CDT