Tuesday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 56°F

Wednesday : Mostly Clear. High: 73°F

Wednesday Night: Partly Clear. Low: 47°F

Thursday : Mostly Cloudy. High: 78°F

Thursday Night: increasing clouds. Low: 58°F

General Discussion: The warmer weather that we started this week with may soon be on its way out as a cold front slinks down from the Northwest. With it we gain cooler air and more moisture, increasing cloud coverage throughout the Midwest. – Sarah

Technical Discussion:

Key messages 

• A cold front begins its descent into the area, impacting the area by Wednesday morning. With it, a high pressure system follows closely behind, to be later moved out by a low from the west. 
• Drought conditions persist, with possible relief on the way Friday morning. 

 

The GFS and NAM Models were used for this forecast; taking into consideration possible biases or superfluous readings on each end. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a jet stream from Canada blows through, greeting us Wednesday morning around 06:00Z – 09:00Z, and lingering above until Thursday morning around 0:00Z-03:00Z. Moisture increases with it, allowing for a warmer than average night, (mid 50’s), as cloud coverage will dampen radiative cooling. With the upper level jet stream, we can see bubbles of divergence that dissipate by Wednesday night with the tail end of the front, cloud cover dissipating with it and allowing for a clear and cooler, (mid 40’s) night. In the mid-level of the atmosphere, we see a line of vorticity following with the motion of this cold front, but as we see little to no moisture or omega in the lower levels, there is very little chance of unsettled weather occurring Wednesday night. There will, however, be stronger winds associated with this cold front, which will increase the dangers for fire weather for the beginning of this week.

Going into Thursday, we see a clear morning with cloud coverage increasing as the day continues, watching as moisture is pushed into the area by the ridge of a high pressure system to the south of us. These clouds will keep our high temperatures from reaching into the eighties, though we will still be above the average fall temperatures for this time, (~72.7° F). The southern high will then be shoved from the area as by Thursday around 18:00Z- 21:00Z a negatively tilted trough appears from the northwest, descending upon us Thursday night into Friday morning. With this low, we see increased pockets of divergence in the upper levels of the atmosphere, paired with a clump of vorticity and moisture following the trough. With mixed layers of instability and moisture, there will be a likelihood for a line of showers popping up early Friday morning, bringing trace amounts of rain. Future forecasters should be wary of this instability as the weekend approaches, due to the increased chance of strong to potentially severe storms. 

Forecasters: Hayes, Schifferdecker. Jackson

Date: 10/22/2024 5:00 PM CDT