Wednesday : Mostly Clear. High: 73°F
Wednesday Night : Partly Clear. Low: 45°F
Thursday : Mostly Cloudy. High: 78°F
Thursday Night : Chance for Rain. Low: 62°F
Friday : Early Morning Showers Mostly Cloudy. High: 73°F
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General Discussion : First chance for rain in a month Thursday night into Friday morning! High temperatures are expected to stay above average even though a cold front will pass through late Friday morning.
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Key Messages :
- Increasing chances (70%) for light showers overnight Thursday into Friday Morning. Low possibility (<20%) for thunderstorms associated with these showers.
- High temperatures slightly above average for season, around the mid-70s heading into the weekend
Technical Discussion :
Wednesday afternoon will be similar to how past days have been with mostly clear conditions and highs reaching the low-70s. Some high-level clouds will slowly build in throughout the day and into the night. Thursday morning lows expected to be in the mid-40s.
On Thursday, temperatures reaching the mid-70s Thursday afternoon are expected due to daytime heating, along with a surface high over east central Illinois and west central Indiana will initiate southerly flow increasing moisture and temperature advection into central Missouri. This will set up our possibility for rain later that night as at 300mb, a short-wave trough overnight Thursday (Friday 00z) forms over southcentral Iowa and northwest Missouri. This along with a strong low-level jet (50 knots) Friday from 03z-09z will work together to produce ample lifting north of the I-70 corridor. With the combination of higher surface temperatures and moisture advection from the gulf, the National Blend of Models shows a mean probability for >0.1in at around 70%. Thunderstorms are likely in northern Missouri, with only a slight possibility (<20%) that these storms reach central Missouri. This is due to the increased windshear profile in the low levels allowing for discrete storms to pop up, rather than the air mass showers that we will likely see.
Late Friday morning, a weak cold front will produce a distinct wind shift, however temperatures will rebound quickly, and highs are expected to stay in the Low 70s. Cloud cover will be in the low levels with most of the sky covered, and increasing high clouds throughout the day.
– McCurdy
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Forecasters: Brucker, Latlip, McCurdy, Peine
Date Issued: 10/23/2024 9:00 AM CDT