- Thursday evening forecast
- Thursday, October 24
- Thursday, 10/24/2024 5:00 PM
Thursday Night: Widespread storms. Low: 60°F
Friday: Partly Sunny. High 71°F
Friday Night: Mostly Clear Low 42°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High 65°F
Saturday Night: Clear. Low 41°F
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General Discussion :
There is a cold front moving in the middle of the night Thursday night, bringing some rain and possible widespread thunderstorms with it. Afterwards, conditions will be slightly cooler than earlier in the week, with some cloud coverage sticking around, but clearing out as the weakened persists.
-Nightingale, Franciscus
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Key Messages :- – Widespread thunderstorms Thursday night sticking around Friday morning.
- – Cold front moving in Friday morning bringing some cooler air going into the weekend.
- Technical Discussion :
As of 22Z, the moisture is advecting north and there is a cold front to the Northwest, and a shortwave trough moving into the area. Mixture is gradually being advected towards mid-Missouri with dew points expected to peak in the mid-upper 50s overnight. At approximately 6Z, widespread thunderstorms are altogether possible with conditions favorable for elevated convection. As the thunderstorms persist, PWATs increase and there is a decent low level jet. The forecast soundings show a relatively decent (35 knots) effective bulk shear leading to the potential for brief potential for supercellular structure, before it transfers into more of a cluster mode. These parameters support potential for small hail and gusty winds, but widespread severe weather is unlikely due to a low level inversion and increasing stability. - The frontal passage will not bring much rain, but will result in cooler conditions for the weekend. Temperatures will decrease due to the Cold Air Advection along with low relative humidity. If these widespread thunderstorms do not bring much rain, the dry air that results and persists will not improve drought conditions. Future forecasters should be increasingly aware of the dry conditions especially as models show temperatures increasing at the end of the forecast period. Temperatures are right around average for this time of year, finally. The average for this time of year is a low of 44, a high of 64 and a mean of 54, which differ from our values of a low of 41 and a high of 65. and will increase around the beginning of the week.
- – Nightingale, Franciscus
Thursday Evening Forecast
