Tuesday Morning October 29th, 2024
Tuesday: Sunny and Breezy. High: 84°F
Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 67°F
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 80°F
Wednesday Night: Thunderstorms. Low: 52°F
Thursday: Showers in the Morning, Sunny in the Afternoon. High: 59°F
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General Discussion:
A windy day is expected for Tuesday with wind gusts going as high as 20-30 MPH. Thunderstorms will arrive in the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with damaging winds and smaller hail anticipated. After this point, the forecast area will return to average (63°F) to above average temperatures to conclude the work week.
-Alcorn
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Forecasters: Beach, John, Alcorn, Chirpich
Date Issued: 10/29/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key messages:
- Warm temperatures and gusty conditions are expected for Tuesday.
- A frontal passage Thursday morning brings in showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Both the NAM and GFS were used for this forecast due to them having consensus for the majority of the forecast period. There is ridging over Columbia, Missouri right now, bringing fair weather for today. A long-wave trough is digging into the Rockies bringing southwesterly flow and warmer temperatures (80s) to the Midwest. Starting Wednesday at 12Z, the forecast area will be under the influence of a low-height center that forms over the Rockies due to the aforementioned trough. A jet streak over Iowa Thursday at 12Z brings higher winds (20+ mph gusts) to Missouri. Divergence is seen aloft from 06Z to 15Z Thursday indicating lift in the upper-levels and foreshadowing unsettled weather.
At 500mb the atmospheric flow is similar with ridging and a strong southwesterly flow on Tuesday. Vorticity misses most of Missouri during the entire period, but strong omega signatures at 700mb make up for the lack of vorticity and provide lift. An excess of moisture from the Gulf advances into the region on Thursday at 03Z-15Z. Missouri loses all moisture needed for precipitation by Thursday evening, so Wednesday and early Thursday would be the best chance for the region to pick up some rain.
At 850mb, moisture from the Gulf continues to dominate Missouri. Surface maps and soundings were consulted in order to get a clearer picture of the timing of precipitation. Rain is expected to start in Kansas on Wednesday 15Z and will push into Missouri at 00Z-03Z along with the passage of a cold front. The FROPA will bring in lift and instability indicating potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night going into Thursday morning. A closer look at soundings supports this possibility as there is an abundance of omega and a negative lifted index. Due to ample forcing, showers are expected but minimal CAPE values decrease the possibility of thunderstorms. Total rain amounts for the system are expected to top out near 0.5 ̂̂ After the FROPA, high pressure comes into the area at 21Z Thursday bringing fair weather for the end of the week.
-John, Chirpich
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