11/1/2024 9:00 AM
Friday: Sunny. High: 62°F
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 42°F
Saturday: Increasing Cloud Cover. High: 68°F
Saturday Night: Cloudy. Low: 57°F
Sunday: Widespread Showers. High: 71°F
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General Discussion : We’ll remain dry throughout Friday and Saturday morning. However, as the upper level high pushes east, more moisture will enter the forecast area Saturday night. Showers will begin Sunday morning and last throughout, with a little break Sunday night. Rainfall amounts up to an inch and a half.
–Scheerer
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Key Messages :
- Dry conditions continuing Friday to AM Saturday
- Much needed rain arriving Saturday PM to Sunday
- Rainfall amounts up to 1.5″
Technical Discussion :
There is currently a surface high pressure system over the forecast area, keeping us dry as we start our Friday. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday as the winds shift from the north to the southeast as the high pushes further east. Although the winds will shift to the southeast, an upper level high will block any gulf moisture from reaching our area. However, as the surface high pushes east towards the Great Lakes and the upper-level high pushes towards the Atlantic, moisture will finally begin to make its way into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Saturday afternoon.
Saturday morning will remain dry with the moisture remaining blocked by the upper level high. Both the GFS and NAM are indicating that we’ll start to see moist conditions later in the day. This will lead to increasing cloud cover throughout Saturday. Rain is expected to begin Sunday morning as the influence of the surface high becomes less prevalent. However, the GFS is uncharacteristically is showing more moisture than the NAM.
Although rain is near certain for Sunday, total rainfall amounts remain uncertain. The NBM is showing rainfall 6 hour precipitation values up to .41 inches Sunday from 12-18z, while the SREF is showing mean values of .20 inches of rain at that same time. Along with that, NWS St. Louis and the NBM are showing total rain values near 1.5 inches for Sunday. The mean SREF value is showing only .31 inches as a total, but with many isolated members much higher. Due to the amount of moisture that will be prevalent throughout Sunday, as well as soundings showing saturation at the surface through the same period, we believe that the total rainfall amounts will be closer to that 1.5 inch mark. We will see a little break from the rainfall Sunday afternoon, but that won’t last long as it will return and last throughout Sunday night.
-Scheerer, Collier, Iffrig