Monday: Cloudy. High: 70°F

Monday Night: Chance for Storms. Low: 60°F

Tuesday: Cloudy. High: 62°F

Tuesday Night: Clouds Clearing. Low: 42°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 62°F

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General Discussion:

Chances for severe thunderstorms tonight before a cold front moves through on Tuesday with the biggest threats being flash flooding and damaging winds. Beneficial rainfall for Mid-Missouri ahead of the cold front expected with these storms. After the storms pass, expect seasonal temperatures and more stable conditions to return to our area.

– Blodgett, Elston

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Forecasters: Blodgett, Elston

Date Issued: 11/04/2024 9:00 AM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages

-Thunderstorms chances for tonight with biggest threats being flash flooding and strong winds

-Seasonal temperatures return after the cold front passes Tuesday

Starting at 300mb, we currently have winds from the Southwest at 50kts, and a trough off to our west centered over the four corners region. Numerous shortwaves and areas of divergence are embedded within this trough which enhances upper level instability. Finally, the location of the jet stream pass just to our north bringing southerly flow to our area Monday night before shifting to Southwest by Tuesday. At 500mb we still see the trough centered over New Mexico and moving into our area by tomorrow. Ahead of this front we see pockets of vorticity move into our area tonight which is another indicator of upper and mid-level instability.

At 700mb there is moisture currently over our area, and will stay with us through Tuesday morning. The moisture is coming from the gulf as winds are from the south for the day on Monday. This is the same for 850mb as winds will be from the South at 20-30kts tonight bringing in the moisture for these storms. There are shortwaves disturbances at 850mb which continues to enhance the strength of the storms tonight due to the instability throughout the atmosphere.

With these storms the biggest threat will be flash flooding and strong winds. A GFS forecasted sounding shows a moisture rich atmosphere with a Pwat value of 1.57in, and a K-index of 35. There is also a possibility of a tornado, but it will depend on the location of the warm front. If the front moves just to the north of our area it allows for more warm moist air to enter along with more wind shear, which will enhance our chances for tornadoes. But if the warm front stays just to our south which is what is currently predicted by models there won’t be enough warm air and wind shear to produce tornadoes.

After these storms tonight pass we expect to see the atmosphere stabilize with more seasonal temperatures on the way. After the cold front passes through our area on Tuesday night skies will clear and low temperatures will be in the low 40s. On Wednesday there will be clear skies and high temperatures in the low 60s as a positively tilted trough forms off to our west, and future forecasting shifts should look out for more potential rain with this trough.

-Blodgett, Elston