Tuesday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. High: 60°F

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy but clearing through the night. Low: 42°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 60°F

Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds to partly cloudy. Low: 42°F

Thursday: Mostly cloudy. High: 61°F

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General Discussion:

To start off our day today there is still a little residual moisture in our area. This will lead to a chance of rain showers (40%) persisting into the early afternoon. However, after this rain pushes out of Columbia we will have a little break before the next weather system moves in. Temperatures remain right around average (Highs: 61°F, Lows: 42°F) for the forecast period. Late on Thursday, expect to see some increasing clouds as the next system starts to move in.

– Beach

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Forecasters: Alcorn, Chirpich, Beach, John

Date Issued: 11/05/2024 9:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

• Be prepared for rainfall and cloudy conditions for the forecast area for Tuesday.
• Drier conditions will allow for sunny days for the rest of the work week.
  

The GFS and NAM were both used for this weather forecast. In order to make an accurate assessment of meteorological conditions for the week, the NAM was used to compare moisture transport vectors due to the anomalous moisture values in the GFS.

At 300 MB, mid-Missouri is seeing the final impacts of a slow moving trough that resulted in flash-flooding in the Ozarks and the forecast area Monday night. The trough is slow moving as a result of ample ridging off the eastern coast of Florida. However, the upper-level wind divergence associated with the trough should be moving eastward out of the forecast area by midday today. A cutoff low, associated with a deepening trough, will lead to meridional flow for the forecast area during the week. However, impacts of this trough and the aforementioned cutoff low are not expected to affect mid-Missouri until the weekend.

500 MB shows a wall of vorticity in place in mid-Missouri throughout the day on Tuesday. With ample moisture and lift present at 700 to 850 MB, scattered (40%) rain chances are anticipated for the forecast area during the day. However, due to decreasing moisture and omega throughout the night, rain chances are confined to Tuesday. For the rest of the week, vorticity and wind divergence are not anticipated to move into mid-Missouri, solidifying dry, sunny conditions. This seems to be contradicted by moisture moving into the area on Wednesday via the GFS; however, the GFS is overdoing moisture compared to the NAM. At 850 MB on Wednesday 18Z to Thursday 12Z, moisture transport vectors and fast winds are funneling moisture out, rather than bringing moisture in.

Temperatures for the duration of the forecast period will remain average (low 60s) to slightly above average. Although mid-Missouri may see a 40% chance of rainfall today, this will be the only chance for measurable rainfall until the weekend. This rainfall is supported by soundings with omega values being elevated, as well as the isodrosotherms and isotherms converging together at 850 MB by 21Z Tuesday. Mid-Missouri may see up to 0.5” of rainfall by Tuesday night.

– Alcorn, Chirpich