Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy but clearing through the night. Low: 42°F
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 60°F
Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds to partly cloudy. Low: 42°F
Thursday: partly cloudy. High: 61°F
Thursday Night: Mostly clear: Low: 42°F
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General Discussion:
Rain chances and cloud cover lingering this afternoon are set to move out Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing sunshine and cooler temperatures ahead. As we approach the rest of this week, temperatures are set to stay a bit above the average for this time of the year, (around 55°F high and 35°F low respectively,), with a short dry reprieve before clouds begin moving our way Thursday night.
– Hayes
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Forecasters: Hayes, Schifferdecker, Jackson
Date Issued: 11/05/2024 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- Moisture is set to leave the vicinity by Tuesday night, giving way to clearer conditions
- Eastern winds and a disintegrating jet stream reference more stable conditions for the rest of the week.
The GFS and NAM were used to create this forecast due to their agreement on most weather trends for the parameters given. Starting Tuesday afternoon, the upper-level jet over Missouri begins to erode due to a southwestern cutoff low, weakening the flow. With its movement out of Missouri, we see calmer and more stable conditions begin to take its place, coalligned with backing eastern winds and a lack of moisture and vorticity present in the area.
The moisture overhead will disperse by late tonight around 00:00Z to 09:00Z, following the movement of the upper-level jet and heading southeast of Missouri. The GFS indicated a larger portion of moisture south of Missouri, and it was ruled to be overshooting due to an inherent moisture bias. For the rest of the week very little moisture or omega will be present above, being shoved out by the eastward winds.
We see in the mid levels of the atmosphere as a line of vorticity follows this wind out of our area, or breaks apart to become intertwined with the southwest cut-off low. This, paired with the lack of divergence aloft and moisture in our area, further promotes the assumption of calmer and drier conditions throughout the rest of the week. Due to this we will also see more radiative heating and cooling, causing warmer daytime temperatures, (lower 60s), and cooler nighttime temperatures, (Lower 40s).
By Thursday night we see as moisture begins to build back up to the west of us with the development of a multi-level low following the tail-end of the disintegrating jet. As more divergence and vorticity appear, future forecasters should be aware that the potential for showers may increase into the weekend as this system moves in.
- Hayes, Schifferdecker, Jackson