Wednesday Night: Patchy Fog Low: 40°F 

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High: 59°F 

Thursday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 42°F 

Friday: Mostly Sunny. High: 61°F 

Friday Night: Increasing Clouds Low: 48°F 

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General Discussion: 

Dry conditions have come to an end after a very active stretch of weather. A more calm stretch of weather before the weekend with dry conditions and seasonal temperatures. Rain chances will increase by early Saturday morning.

-Stevens, McCluskey

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Forecasters: Stevens, McCluskey

Date Issued: 11/06/2024 5:00 PM CST 

Technical Discussion: 

Key Messages: 

• Fog will be possible heading into the morning on Thursday.
• Seasonal temperatures continue through the end of the forecast period.
• Rain chances return by early in the morning Saturday.

Current visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny sky conditions across central Missouri. Some high clouds continue to filter through eastern Missouri, but for the most part clear sky conditions look to continue. On Thursday morning, clear sky conditions along with high relative humidity values near the surface and light winds less than 5 mph will combine for the recipe of patchy fog, especially in low lying valleys and near rivers. Modeled soundings from both the NAM and GFS at KCOU show an temperature inversion just above the surface which will also be key in any fog development. By mid-morning all fog should have dissipated leading to mostly sunny sky conditions through the rest of the day Thursday.

Upper-level flow shows a strong ridge that has built in across the eastern United States, along with the ridging in place an associated surface high-pressure feature is present across northern Iowa. This is allowing for winds out of the northeast and is bringing in a cooler air-mass. Through the day on Thursday, the aforementioned northeasterly winds will continue to lead temperatures in the upper 50s right around our seasonal average (Avg high: 59). Overnight lows will be near the 40 degree mark through the end of the week, although an increase in clouds by Friday night will result in morning lows on Saturday staying in the upper 40s and nearing the 50 degree mark.

While temperatures look to stay very seasonal through the end of the forecast period, more moisture and a few more clouds will progress into the region by Friday midday. This will be the result of a trough that is currently across the western CONUS becoming cutoff as it progresses towards the region. Moisture will transport into the region thanks to southeasterly winds, as the moisture sits in place along with forcing for ascent from diffluence associated with the upper-level jet streak, the likelihood for clouds and a couple sprinkles will return by Friday night into Saturday. The greatest amount of moisture does not arrive until mid-morning on Saturday. SREF, GEFS, and NBM models are depicting that we may see up to a trace by 12z Saturday, but future forecasters should be aware of rain chances throughout the day on Saturday.

– Stevens