Friday, November 8th – Morning Forecast

Friday: Patchy clouds. High: 62°F

Friday Night: Cloud cover increasing. Low: 46°F

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy, patchy showers. High: 56°F

Saturday Night: Clouds clearing. Low: 47°F

Sunday: Clear. High: 64°F

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General Discussion:
Fall is struggling to take a grasp as some warmer temperatures could arrive to the region following the passage of this round of precipitation, but signs are trending positive that fall gain a stronger grip the area so just hold on for the ride. Be on the look out for the best chance of precipitation on Saturday.

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Forecasters: Collier, Scheerer, Iffrig

Date Issued: 11/08/2024 0900 AM CST

Key Messages:

• Temperatures will remain relatively stable as precipitation begins to look like it might move into the area.
• Timing, amount, and area of effect of the precipitation remains very much up in the air.
  

Technical Discussion:

A transitioning upper level flow and moisture advection are guiding the weather over mid-Missouri this lovely morning. The polar and subtropical jet streams are coming together which in turn is guiding the low pressure system off to our west. This system will eventually make its way over the Missouri area bringing with it some clouds and the chance for a shower or two. The timing of this event however, and the area of effect, remains the impending question at this moment in time.

The moisture of what will become the remnants of Hurricane Rafael will be advected into the region via the flow of the low pressure system. This will provide plenty of nutrients for clouds to grow and create a nice little blanket for temperatures to regulate themselves. The large question becomes the aforementioned timing of rain, if any will occur at all. Both the NAM and GFS indicate that precipitation could occur, but model soundings of the time frame suggest that the air might be too dry for rain to even reach the surface. The greatest chance for precipitation to have a possibility making an appearance is from 0600 AM to 1800 (6:00 PM) Saturday, with the most likely timing is around the mid-morning hours (0700 to 1100 AM). Should precipitation fall and make it to the surface, we could only see trace amounts to very small measurable amounts (0.01 to 0.08 inches).

This however could bring an interesting feature into the region – precipitation fog. This occurs when rain evaporates before it can hit the ground, adding moisture to the lower levels allowing for fog to condense and form. Winds will be calm during that time which will also help. Model soundings again show saturation of the lower levels and weak to calm winds which are all perfect conditions for fog to occur, and these conditions will be present throughout the entire day.

Moving into Sunday, the precipitation chances and low pressure system will move out of the area and clear skies will move back into the region. Temperatures will again begin to stable out to around seasonable averages (mid 50s). The next forecast shifts should monitor the upper level flow as it is transitioning from a zonal to meridional pattern which could bring some active weather with it.

-Iffrig