Monday: Sunny. High: 63°F
Monday Night: Clear. Low: 37°F
Tuesday: Sunny. High: 57°F
Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 43°F
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High: 57°F
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General Discussion:
Average temperatures for November are back with Highs in the upper 50’s and lows in the upper 30’s. Radiational cooling will be a persistent trend for the nights of Monday and Tuesday with clear skies.
– Nobles, Elston
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Forecasters: Nobles, Elston
Date Issued: 11/11/2024 9:00 AM CDT
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages
-Average temperatures are back with highs in the 50’s and lows in the 30’s
-Radiational Cooling persisting with very dry and cold conditions.
-Clouds are expected to move into our region Wednesday along with chances of rain.
With no overhead Jet streaks to influence our weather at 300mb, we can expect a more mild flow in the upper levels for the start of the forecast period. However, the jet streak, originally located in northern Arkansas, will push into our area on Wednesday as a trough sweeps into our area. Areas of divergence are also present with this trough which could promote instability for potential storm development. Fog was apparent this morning due to radiational cooling and light winds at the surface. Westerly winds will be persistent throughout our forecast period. At 500mb, vorticity is shown to strengthen outside of our forecast window lining up with our expectation of rain chances Wednesday.
At 700mb there is no moisture present, due to a high pressure system there should be little to no cloud coverage for Monday and Tuesday. GFS is sowing moisture pulled from the Gulf on Wednesday. This increase of moisture will result in more cloud coverage. At 850mb high pressure is prevalent promoting less clouds, sunny skies and low wind speeds for Monday and Tuesday. An overall dry environment with, low dew points and average temperatures for November. At our surface, as of this morning a front moved through delivering a dry atmosphere with no cloud coverage. Aiding to our lower overnight temperatures from radiational cooling.
Future forecasters will expand on our expectation of rain in the evening hours Wednesday. There is a slight chance that the opportunity of rainfall misses us. If not, no big complications such as flash flooding are expected.
-Nobles, Elston