Wednesday Night – Clear. Low: 39 F

Thursday – Increasing throughout the day. High: 54 F

Thursday Night – Lingering cloud cover. Low: 43 F

Friday – Clouds breaking up throughout day. High: 51 F

Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Low: 45 F

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DISCUSSION:

Happy hump day, tigers! Expect above temperatures for the rest of the week, with no temperatures reaching below 40 degrees this week. However, the nights will get chilly so bring jackets with you if you plan on being outside after the sun goes down. The rest of the week will be pretty cloudy as well, with intermittent sunshine peeking through only later in the week. Stay warm!

– Cargill

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Forecasters: Cargill, Robinson

Date Issued: 01/31/2024 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages

1. Temperatures will remain above average this week making for an unseasonably warm end of January.

2. Cloud cover throughout the rest of the week will keep heat trapped at the surface for the rest of the forecast period.

3. A building Omega block, with an associated high-pressure system, is moving into the Columbia area on Friday, shifting winds from the north to the west and south.

The GFS and NAM were used in tandem for this forecast. A developing Omega block is currently being observed at 300mb moving from west to east, with the ridge axis extending into southern Canada. The associated high-pressure system is causing the northerly winds Missouri has been experiencing to shift to the west initially, then to the south as the forecast period nears its end. This wind shift, as a result of the Omega block, will allow Columbia continue experiencing fair weather conditions and above average temperatures. Minimal divergence is observed at this level, causing little to no convergence at the surface. This fact, along with little to no vorticity at 500mb, leaves no hope for active weather throughout the forecast period.

Moisture aloft is not expected to develop at 700mb and 850mb until late Thursday, which is the probable cause for the forecast ̀s building clouds throughout the day. The Omega block ̀s associated low-pressure system is bringing in this moisture as it exits the CONUS. However, the system ̀s moisture seems to break apart as it enters the CWA, leading to the break up of clouds Friday into Friday night. A building LLJ is observed at 850mb to the west. This occurs right at the tail end of the forecasting period, so future forecasters should watch the LLJ as potential fuel for precipitation (considering the amount of moisture being drawn in so close to our geographical location).

Modeled soundings for Friday night support the return to more clear conditions. The absence of solenoids observed at the surface demonstrates the lack of WAA and CAA throughout the region. In addition, the SFC 3 Hr Accumulated Precip shows a increasing probability for rainfall in Kansas and Nebraska right at the end of the forecasting period. This is in tandem with the LLJ and should be monitored by future forecasting shifts as it moves east into the region.

– Cargill, Chirpich