CWF Tuesday, February 6th – Afternoon Forecast
Tuesday Night: Increasing Cloud Cover. Low – 37
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy. High – 60
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low – 48
Thursday: Decreasing Clouds Throughout the Day. High – 66
Thursday Night: Decreasing Cloud Cover. Low – 44
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Discussion:
Good afternoon, Tigers! Temperatures will remain well above the seasonal average for the remainder of the week. Dry conditions remain with the slight chance of precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning, along with the chance for precipitation, winds of 15-25 mph are expected.
-Thee
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Forecasters: Simmons, Thee, Yost
Date Issued: 02/06/2024 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
-Temperatures remain well above seasonal averages for the remainder of the week
-Strong winds are expected during the day on Thursday up to 15-25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots
The GFS and NAM were used in collaboration for this forecast as they both performed well on current surface analysis and placement of high-pressure.
The axis of a low-level ridge currently sits in place over the CWA. It will continue to shift east out of the area and will allow for winds to shift to a southerly component. This will keep Tuesday overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s along with the help of increasing cloud cover.
In the upper-levels, a strong ridge sits to the west of the CWA and will build in overnight on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This ridge will continue to allow for southerly winds that will aid in temperatures well above the seasonal average(avg. high 42). As the ridge moves to the east throughout the day on Wednesday and out of the area, a shortwave trough will follow directly behind.
With the shortwave trough moving into the region on Thursday, a well pronounced mid-latitude cyclone will coast over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. At 500 MB, a vort max will propagate over the CWA around 21Z on Thursday evening. With some low-level moisture in place, the ample amount of forcing will allow for the possibility of precipitation to occur. However, only a trace is expected due to the lack of moisture available based on the origin of the mid-latitude cyclone and better dynamics closer to the low. With the low-pressure system situated to the north and a high-pressure system to the south, a strong pressure gradient will sit over the region enforcing stronger winds of 15-25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots out of the southwest. With low chances of precipitation on Thursday evening, a cold front draped off of the low will move through the CWA overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Due to the timing and strength of the cold front Friday morning, low temperatures will dip into the low to mid-40s.
-Thee, Simmons