Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low – 48

Thursday: Decreasing Cloud Coverage. High – 66

Thursday Night: Clear Skies and Increased Winds. Low – 44

Friday: Developing Cloud Coverage. High – 66

Friday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low – 39

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Discussion:

For the rest of the week, temperatures will remain above average, climbing into the high 60s. Cloud coverage will temporarily subside Thursday and increased surface winds will reach up to 20 mph late afternoon. Thursday is an odd-ball day, however, and by Friday the weather will return to how it’s been this week.

-Robinson

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Forecasters: Robinson, Cargill

Date Issued: 02/07/2024 5:10 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

• A low-pressure system north of the forecast area will draw most of the moisture available into it, keeping it out of Missouri. 
• A small cold front will move through on Saturday, but will not heavily affect the continuing trend of seasonally warmer temperatures.

Both the GFS and NAM were used in this forecast. At 300mb, Missouri is on the backside of an amplified ridge moving east. A weak jet streak moves through on Thursday 18Z, with a more intense jet streak moving through on Friday 21Z. Looking towards future forecast periods, there is a positively tilted trough developing on the West coast, with jet stream coupling occurring at the trough base. This could shift the weather pattern for the upcoming weekend.

At 500mb, large pockets of vorticity are focused on the backside of the ridge over the forecast area. The majority of this vorticity will move with a low-pressure system currently centered over Nebraska and moving northeast towards Canada. Although a strong band of vorticity associated with this system moves over the forecast area from Thursday 21Z to Friday 3Z, it will not heavily influence precipitation changes as lower levels do not provide enough moisture. 

While the low-pressure system to the north has a sufficient amount of moisture at 700mb, in Missouri the moisture profile is lacking at both this aforementioned level and near the surface. Primarily, this lack of moisture coupled with increased lift will influence a break in cloud cover for the area on Thursday around 21Z. The moisture that moves through on Saturday 0Z to 3Z will remain in the upper-levels and help with the development of high clouds. 

At 850mb, there is an elongated pocket of CAA on Thursday 9Z. The CAA is more prevalent, however, on Saturday from 3Z to the end of the forecast period. Specifically on Saturday 6Z to 9Z, solenoids are present at the surface. This is due to the passage of a cold front that will shift winds from the SW to NW. The 540 line will lie just to the NW of Missouri as temperatures drop heading into the weekend.

-Robinson, Chirpich