Monday, February 12, 2024 — Morning Forecast
Monday: Partly cloudy. High: 46
Monday Night: Partly cloudy Low: 30
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Low: 32
Tuesday night: Clear. High: 50
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High: 57
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Discussion:
Moisture is staying to the south leaving our CWA with mostly cloudy sky conditions throughout the day. This low pressure system stays southeast dragging the moisture with it and leaving mostly cloudy for Tuesday. Temperatures will remain seasonal for our forecast period.
-Counts
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Forecasters: Blodgett, Counts
Date Issued: 02/12/2024 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
– Low pressure system with moisture is staying southeast and developing more throughout our forecast period, left with some clouds and seasonal temperatures for this time of year.
For 250 mb, the GFS is more aggressive than the NAM.The sub tropical jet is prevalent over the southeast with a jet streak in Louisiana that is being moved by a deep trough. Divergence aloft stays to the Southeast as this low pressure system moves through. At 18Z Tuesday the Polar jet stream is over the Central Plains with a zonal flow with weak upper level ridging. A large jet streak is developing on Wednesday that could create a disturbance in our area for future forecasters.
At 500mb, a large trough of vorticity is circulating in our region now helping keep the moisture to the South. Looking at observations we can visualize this using satellite imagery. This system moves out by 09Z Tuesday leaving us with little voriticty in our CWA.
At 700mb, moisture is on our CWA but staying to the southwest Missouri. GFS is suggesting more moisture than the NAM. At 12Z on Tuesday, the GFS is suggesting more moisture than the NAM. We have decided to go with the NAM as lots of dry air and subsidence is shown in the soundings.
For 850mb, the low level jet is helping push the moisture southeast moving towards the Carolinas. Moisture remaining clear until Tuesday at 18Z, but with sounds and surface observations this will remain upper clouds. Warm air advection is also moving in at this time leaving us with above average temperatures for Wednesday. At the surface this shows as their is no moisture for the remaining forecast period.
-Counts