Monday, February 19 – Morning Forecast

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Monday: Sunny. High: 55°F

Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 32°F

Tuesday: Sunny. High: 61°F

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 38°F

Wednesday: Sunny. High: 67°F

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General Discussion:

A subtropical jet rises into mid-Missouri from the south as the atmospheric flow transitions from zonal to a more meridional flow. Little moisture is being recorded in the mid to upper levels offering little cloud cover. This little cloud cover will bring more volatility to the highs and overnight low temperatures throughout this forecast period.

– Blodgett, Counts

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Forecasters: Blodgett, Counts

Date Issued: 2/19/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

A blend between the NAM and the GFS was used to produce this forecast. The hemispheric plot shows a small trough moving through the Midwest region, before a longwave ridge builds into the region and levels out. On to 250 mb, this trough can still be seen alongside a subtropical jet in the southwestern portions of the CONUS. The jet gets pushed to the north into a ridge as it propagates eastward into our region and sticks around for the remainder of our forecast period. During the time in which this is occurring, the atmospheric flow transitions from a zonal flow to more of a meridional flow.

As we go down to 500 mb, the shortwave trough remains a noticeable feature in our atmosphere. Though the trough isn’t deep, there is enough vorticity associated with it to bring to potential upper level cloud cover in the later hours of Monday. As the ridge builds in, there are other areas of weak vorticity that have a chance to bring subtle upper level cloud cover.

Going into 700 and 850 mb, the previously mentioned trough is able to bring in enough moisture to consider mid-level cloud cover in the early morning hours of Tuesday. After the passage of this trough, there won’t be enough moisture over Missouri to produce any more mid to low-level clouds for the remainder of this forecast shift. Surface maps show winds moving from the south, bringing in more warm air to heat up the region. The absence of cloud cover tonight will keep our lows near freezing before we see temperatures rise back to above average for the remainder of the period.

Future forecast shifts should pay attention to the sudden inflow of moisture midway through Thursday as chances of precipitation will increase in that time.

-Blodgett, Counts