Monday, February 19 – Morning Forecast
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Monday: Sunny. Increasing clouds for afternoon. High: 76°F
Monday Night: Mostly Clear. Low: 54°F
Tuesday: Sunny with low level clouds and high winds SW direction. High: 81°F
Tuesday Night: Overnight clouds. Temperatures dropping quickly. Low: 24°F
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 39°F
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General Discussion:
Above average temperature for today and tomorrow. A significant temperature change over 24 hours for Tuesday night with lows in the mid 20s. The cold front passing through Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning will bring chances of thunderstorms Tuesday evening. Early Wednesday morning may feature a few sleet/snow showers.
– Blodgett, Counts
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Forecasters: Blodgett, Counts
Date Issued: 2/26/2024 10:00 AM CST
Technical Discussion:
Currently the polar jet and subtropical jet is both prevalent over the CONUS. By Tuesday 00Z both jet streams begin to couple which will strengthen the large jet streak that is approaching our region. At 03Z Wednesday our area will begin to experience the left exit region bringing more divergence aloft that will help influence convergence at the surface. At this time a trough is over the Northern Rockies that is positively tilted and over time transitions into a negative tilted trough by the end of this forecast. 12Z Wednesday this trough is transitioning over head our area and helping strengthen our jet streak with upper level winds from 140kts-160kts.
At 500 mb, a trough of vorticity is beginning to circulate in the Pacific Northwest. This trough is helping with bands of vorticity in our region indicating stronger winds and cloud cover by 06Z Tuesday. This trough is now developed over the Colorado Rockies by 00Z on Wednesday. High differential vorticity values is helping the convergence occurring at the surface at this time and through 12Z on Wednesday. This trough quickly progresses out of our area and moves to the northeast seaboard.
For both 700mb and 800mb there is no indication of moisture for today or most of Tuesday. Today at 18Z at 850mb, there is a lot of warm air advection in our area with the low level jet overhead indicating high winds from the south. This resulted in a Red Flag warning for fire weather as very dry air and high winds at the surface will promote dangerous conditions for fire development. This warm air advection is prevalent until Tuesday at 18Z when both models indicates a FROPA with strong cold air advection following it. This cold air advection will be significant as moisture will follow this cold front through our CWA from 00Z Wednesday until 15Z.
At the surface there is a lot to discuss. Today and tomorrow temperatures will be above average for this time of year for both high and low temperatures. With a high of 81 degrees on Tuesday it could possible break the record high that for February 27th. These temperatures will not last long as there will be a near 60 degree change Tuesday night into Wednesday. With this temperature gradient and a quick change in 1000mb to 500mb thickness there is a possibility of a few pop up storms. The dew points will follow the dry line moving across the southeast of our state but there are not enough indicators to make these possible pop up storms severe. The FROPA that I previously stated at 850mb begins at the surface at 00Z Wednesday. The 1000-500 mb thickness indicates solenoids at the 540 line moves through our region indicating cold air advection. Temperatures will drop quickly as this front moves through with moisture behind the front that may allow for a wintery mix. This moisture will begin in between 06Z Wednesday and 09Z. Using the top down method we are predicting sleet at 06Z and quickly turning into snow as cold air advection continues to cool the profile eroding the warm nose. After this system it will leave our area with more seasonal temperatures.
-Counts