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Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 26°F
Thursday: Partly Cloudy. High 50°F
Thursday Night: Overcast. Low: 38°F
Friday: Partly Cloudy. High: 53°F
Friday Night: Clear. Low: 35°F
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General Discussion:
The impact of the cold front from Wednesday morning will not have long-term effects as temperatures steadily incline into the weekend. Expect an increase in clouds this Thursday with subtle winds in the forecast area.
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Forecasters: Robinson, Cargill
Date Issued: 2/28/2024 5:00 PM CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- A developing low-pressure system will move into the forecast area, but at best, will gather clouds for the forecast area.
- Weather conditions will be clear and temperatures will steadily increase again moving into the weekend.
Both the GFS and NAM were used in this forecast. At 300mb, jet stream phasing over eastern CONUS has intensified the depth of a trough to the east of the forecast area. As it moves towards the Pacific, jet stream phasing will de-escalate. A ridge of high-pressure will characterize the flow of the polar jet and the subtropical jet stream will move back south heading into Thursday 21Z. A small low-pressure system depicted on both maps moves into the forecast area Friday 06Z with associated divergence. Moving into Saturday, an elevated ridge will take over and clear out any potential for active weather.
At 500mb, a deep trough with associated vorticity along its leading edge moves northeast as it moves out of the forecast area. To follow is the low-pressure system currently developing in the southeast CONUS and moving northwest. The system will pass through Missouri between Friday 09Z-21Z. Even though lift and moisture are associated with the system, these are more prominent in southeast Missouri. Consequently, there will not be a noticeable shift in weather patterns as the low-pressure system moves through the forecast area and is replaced by a high pressure ridge.
Moving closer to the surface, at 700mb, the southern part of the low-pressure system is fed moisture from the Gulf and partial lift from convergence at the surface Friday 03Z-15Z. However, as mentioned above, with a lack of lift in the system over the forecast area, any chances for precipitation are alleviated. Instead, there will be an increase in upper-level clouds and weak WAA aloft Friday 18Z and Saturday 18Z.
At 850mb, moisture and lift aloft are re-emphasized and more clearly specified from Friday 06Z-21Z. The LLJ will not heavily influence the forecast period’s weather, but the elevated ridge and its associated high-pressure will help with the shift in winds from northwest to southwest between Thursday 12Z-15Z. At the surface, this will help increase afternoon temperatures into the low 50s for the latter half of the week. Heading into this weekend, look for temperatures to continue increasing.
-Robinson