Atmospheric Science Research

Thursday, February 29- Afternoon Forecast

Campus Weather Forecast

Thursday, February 29- Afternoon Forecast

Thursday Night: Cloudy, Light Rain possible. Low: 35 f

Friday Partly Cloudy. High: 55 F

Friday Night Clear. Low: 37 F

Saturday Sunny. High: 70 F

Saturday Night Clear. Low: 54 F

General Discussion:

Happy Thursday! Weather will keep getting warmer as we get into the weekend. Temperatures will go from the 50s on Friday with a chance for rain (40%) to temperatures to the the low 70s by Saturday.

-Thomas

Key Messages:

  1. Trace precipitation is expected for Thursday night going into early Friday morning.
  2. Low confidence in patchy fog from 03z to 12z on Saturday.
  3. Above average temperatures, reaching the 70’s, expected for this weekend.

Both the NAM and GFS were considered for this forecast; however, they have key differences in moisture and temperature leading us to lean on the GFS more.

Thursday evening begins with a shortwave trough at 300mb over northern Texas and Kansas. It reaches Missouri at 06z on Friday and passes through by 06z on Saturday. This shortwave can be seen during the same times at 500mb. High circulation is associated with this shortwave and clears out of the forecast area by 00z on Saturday. At 700mb and 850mb, high levels of moisture associated with the shortwave suggest trace precipitation. Light rain is expected during this period; however, soundings suggest a light snow/sleet mix at 09z on Friday. Southerly/southwesterly winds will blow through the forecast area at the lower levels (surface to 850mb), meaning warm air advection is expected for the entirety of the forecast period. These factors indicate significant warming, leading to weekend highs in the 70’s, and low temperatures in the upper-30’s.

Soundings indicate moisture in the mid-levels at the beginning of the forecast period. Cloud cover develops into all levels until 09z on Friday. After 09z on Friday, the upper and mid-level moisture begins to clear, then begins to clear out of the lower levels at 21z on Friday. There is low confidence in patchy fog on Saturday from 03z to 12z due to surface winds potentially reaching 8 kts. Winds of this magnitude would keep fog from forming. Any fog will quickly clear up after sunrise (~13z), and the rest of the forecast period is expected to be clear, as there will be little moisture throughout the atmosphere.

-Melton