Friday, March 1, – Afternoon Forecast


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Friday Night: Decreasing Clouds. Low: 35°F

Saturday: Sunny with breezy conditions. High: 70°F

Saturday Night: Clear, breezy. Low: 52°F

Sunday: Sunny with breezy conditions. High: 79°F

Sunday Night: Increasing Clouds. Low: 56°F

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General Discussion:

The low pressure system that caused the light showers this morning has moved out of the area, allowing for a clear sky most of this weekend. Temperatures will increase through out the weekend growing to well above average for this time of year, so be sure to get back out those shorts. The Sunday high temperature has a chance to reach the record high for March 3rd in Columbia which was set in 1983 and is 80 degrees. Winds could gust over 35 mph Sunday afternoon!

-Ebert

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Forecasters: Ebert, Collier

Date Issued: 3/01/2024 5:00 PM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

  1. Moisture leaving the area today meaning dry weather for the weekend.
  2. Warm temperatures make a return this weekend, with highs around 70 on Saturday and near 80 on Sunday.
  3. Winds increasing Saturday into Sunday with sustained winds of around 20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph on Sunday.

A shortwave that was associated with some light precipitation across Central and Southern Missouri this morning has moved out of the area and to the northeast into the Southern Great Lake’s region. Some low-level moisture may still linger late this evening due to the aforementioned shortwave, but sky conditions will clear out by Saturday morning. At 300 mb and at the surface, southwesterly flow will set the stage for significant warm air advection, especially on Sunday.

For Saturday, upper level westerly winds will continue and turning slightly more southerly being influenced by the polar jet that will remain well north of Missouri the whole weekend. With dry, southwest winds at the surface, lots of sunshine will be present for the entire day and temperatures will increase into the low 70s which is around 20 degrees above our average for this time of the year. For Saturday night, winds will continue to increase out of the south, but sky conditions will continue to remain clear with an overnight low temperature in the low 50s forecasted.

Sunday, the upper level winds will shift even more southerly and the polar jet will remain to the north of Missouri creating a conducive environment for warm air advection. A low pressure system over the Northern Plains will cause southerly flow near the surface with wind gusts over 35 mph possible. Associated with low, some mid level clouds may start to build in late Sunday afternoon and evening at the 700-850 mb level. Cloud cover will increase through the overnight hours, with the greater moisture to our north across Iowa and Minnesota. Winds will continue to be strong out the southwest and keep us 20-25 degrees above average (avg low 31) heading into Monday morning.

Future forecasters should monitor low pressure system forming over Colorado Sunday night into Monday morning that could drop temperatures on Monday and could bring some chances for rain.

-Ebert