Friday: Lingering rain chances. High: 51°F

Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 34°F

Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 47°F

Saturday Night: Clear. High: 29°F

Sunday: Sunny. High: 57°F

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General Discussion:

Good morning Tigers! Lingering rain chances persist through today with the movement of a low pushing northeast. Temperatures will drop to near average (54°F) today and tomorrow, with cloud cover decreasing through Saturday. The weekend will be relatively quiet compared to the last few days of rain, and warmer temperatures will make a return early next week.

-Casserly

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Forecasters: Casserly, Warden, Shaw

Date Issued: 3/8/2024 10:00 AM CST

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

• A passing surface low today will bring northerly winds and cooler temperatures today and tomorrow. Moisture associated with the low yields lingering rain chances, but it’s unlikely we will see measurable rain over Columbia.
• Tomorrow will be the coldest day of the weekend with temperatures in the upper 40s. Clouds will clear overnight into Saturday, and a gradual warming trend runs into next week.

Current upper-air maps show a deepening trough with a low centered over eastern Canada. As this trough progresses through the weekend, ridging builds in behind and moves over the Midwest by Sunday afternoon. As this trough develops, moisture and circulation are dragged to the east with it, indicating that this weekend’s weather will be much quieter than the rainy last few days.

At the surface, there is a low centered over northern Missouri and moving northeast today into tomorrow. Abundant circulation and moisture are present for this low, however lack of instability and persisting cloud cover will prevent significant warming and thunderstorm development. The moisture associated with this low is unlikely to produce significant precipitation at the surface today, and it will move east of Missouri through tomorrow afternoon. A cold front draped over the state will shift winds to northerly and cooling temperatures are on the way for tomorrow. Saturday’s temperatures are expected to be the coldest we will be for the next week, but clouds will move out and we are likely to see some sunshine by tomorrow afternoon.

By Sunday, temperatures are expected to warm and plenty of insolation will be available to bring us to above-average temperatures by next week. Rain chances are completely gone by this point, and winds will switch to a southerly component; loosely-defined solenoids are present in surface models that indicate warm air advection. An upper-level low begins to develop out of the southwestern US by Sunday afternoon, which is a feature that future forecasters should pay attention for the start of next week.

-Casserly