Friday Night: Cloudy, chance of mist. Low: 34°F
Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 47°F
Saturday Night: Clear. Low: 29°F
Sunday: Sunny. High: 57°F
Sunday Night: Clear. Low: 36°F
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General Discussion:
Don’t forget that we will be springing forward this Sunday, and the weather will be too. Most moisture should be gone by midday Saturday, so we will have a clear, sunny Sunday to look forward to. Make sure to hang on to your hats, because this pattern shift will be relatively quick, bringing winds of 15–20 mph with it.
–Collier
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Forecasters: Collier, Ebert, McCormack
Date Issued: 3/8/2024 5:00pm CST
Technical Discussion:
Key Messages:
- While tonight will remain cloudy, there is little chance for accumulated precipitation.
- The last of the clouds will clear out on Saturday, leaving us with a sunny but windy weekend.
The moisture content of the mid levels will be the focus of the forecast for this evening as the atmosphere does its best to squeeze out any last remaining drops before the weekend. There appears to be some model disagreement about the placement and distribution of this moisture, but this can mostly be chalked up to resolution differences (the NAM’s moisture resolution appears much more spotty than the GFS, but both take a similar shape). Regardless, it is clear that what moisture is left from the system that passed through this week is weak and will be gone by 15z on Saturday. Anything left lingering tonight and overnight will likely not be sufficient to produce measurable rainfall; some mist or trace drizzle may be possible, if the surface is not too dry. Lows will dip close to (but likely not under) freezing tonight, as the cloud cover will provide some insulation even as we experience some cold air advection.
An upper-level trough is currently deepening over the plains states and will pass over the forecast area early on Saturday, and this flow pattern will help to advect plenty of cold air from the north our way. Models are in good agreement about the timing and intensity of this feature, as well as the passage of a shortwave along the trough mid-morning Saturday. Forcing associated with this feature appears to be weak, however, with low omega values and little vorticity. There will also be very little remaining moisture as cold, dry air will begin to push it out of the way. Therefore, it does not appear this will result in much of anything sensible-weather-wise. The high temperature will be around 50, and the afternoon should be sunny, but windy, with northwest winds of 15-20 mph. The clear sky condition will help to bring the Saturday low down to the high 20s, a few degrees lower than the seasonal average of 33.
Sunday will continue the clear pattern, but a relatively quick wind shift from the north to the south will occur as the high pressure following the aforementioned trough passes over the forecast area. The west side of the anticyclone will bring warmer air from the south, along with the sunshine, will help to warm Sunday’s high to the upper 50s–certainly notable, given the lower temperatures we will have been experiencing for the past few days, but a far cry from the 70s that have been the norm this winter. Still, those 70s may see a return next week if the pattern continues. Future shifts should monitor the potential for this continued warming trend.
–Collier