Monday, March 11th – Afternoon Forecast

Monday Night: Clear. Low 44°F

Tuesday: Increasing clouds. High: 73°F

Tuesday Night: Rain and storms. Low: 51°F

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High: 75°F

Wednesday Night: Rain and storms. Low: 57°F

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General Discussion:

Even warmer temperatures are expected tomorrow, but a more active pattern is on the way. Rain and storms arrive tomorrow evening and exit throughout the early morning hours on Wednesday. A quick break in cloud cover is expected before another round of rain and storms Wednesday evening.

-Jackson 

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Forecasters: Jackson, Sallot

Date Issued: 3/11/2024 6:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages: 

• Tonight into tomorrow morning will be calm with little cloud cover. This will allow temperatures to drop into the low 40s. 
• A shortwave trough moving through Kansas will usher in warmer air from the south, allowing Missouri to warm up into the low 70s by the afternoon hours. 
• This same shortwave trough will bring thunderstorm activity by the evening hours Tuesday. Another round of potentially stronger thunderstorms is expected Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  

Throughout all layers of the atmosphere, a zonal pattern will be in place over Missouri tonight. Both 700 mb and 850 mb showcase a lack of moisture and omega through tomorrow morning because of this zonal pattern. These factors will result in a clear sky tonight, and this clear sky will allow for temperatures to cool down into the low 40s because of radiational cooling.  

Our attention then turns to Tuesday afternoon as a shortwave trough over Kansas begins to propagate to the east. This will first bring warmer air as southerly flow begins to strengthen and solenoids from the southwest that move to the northeast will result in warm air advection. This will also bring the return of lower-level moisture from the southwest, which means clouds will also make a return. Even with the return of cloud cover, the southwesterly flow at the surface and warm air advection will allow for a warmup into the low 70s by the afternoon hours.  

By Tuesday evening, the effects of the shortwave trough will be present in Missouri. At 500 mb, vorticity around this shortwave trough will move through central portions of the state by 00Z Tuesday – 03Z Wednesday. At 700 mb, pockets of moisture begin to expand in central Missouri. There are also omega values of –10 to –12 µbar/s surrounding these pockets of moisture during 00Z Tuesday into 03Z Wednesday. Moisture is also present at 850 mb during this time. All of this will lead to rain and thunderstorms in central Missouri Tuesday evening at approximately 00Z-03Z Wednesday. Rain amounts will be lackluster as NCEP SREF Plumes show a mean of .15” total QPF by 12Z Wednesday with most models clustered below that value. These thunderstorms do not have the best chance of becoming strong as they are moving through the area after the maximum daytime heating hours, leading to less energy for storms to latch on to.  

After a quick break in upper-level moisture Wednesday morning, the focus will turn to a developing low-pressure system over the Oklahoma panhandle and southwest Kansas. Although this will still bring more clouds by the afternoon hours, it will also be advecting warmer air from the southwest into Missouri. This will raise temperatures into the mid 70s by the afternoon Wednesday. This low-pressure system will propagate northeast through the afternoon hours and will allow a warm front to pass through Missouri by 21Z Wednesday to 00Z Thursday. At the passage of this warm front, energy will be at a maximum, moisture will be present in the upper levels, and the low-level jet will be moving at 40-50 kts from the southwest. This means that more rain and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon/evening, with this system having a better potential for strong thunderstorms. Columbia is already included in a marginal risk (1/5) for the Wednesday-Thursday period. 

Future forecasting shifts need to watch the evolution of the low-pressure system Wednesday into Thursday and monitor the severe potential for this time frame as new model runs arrive.  

-Jackson