Thursday Night: Thunderstorms. Low 46°F

Friday: Mostly Sunny. High: 58°F

Friday Night: Cloudy. Low: 42°F

Saturday: Mostly Sunny. High: 64°F

Saturday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 38°F

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General Discussion:

Keep an eye out, Columbia! Thunderstorms and hail are expected tonight. Friday and Saturday will be more calm, with Friday night being cloudy and Saturday night being partly cloudy. Temperatures are expected to return closer to average highs and lows after this evening.

-Melton

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Forecasters: Thomas, Melton, Peine

Date Issued: 3/14/2024 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion:

Key Messages:

1. Severe thunderstorms are likely over the forecast area heading into tonight.

2. A longwave trough passes through the region heading into Saturday night, bringing cooler temperatures.

The GFS and the NAM were both used exclusively for this forecast. They agree through most of the forecast period, with some disagreements on the exact placement of thunderstorms tonight.

At 250 mb there is divergence aloft, along with a positively tilted trough just to the west of the region. There is circulation visible at 500 mb that is passing through the region. There is sufficient moisture present at 850 mb and 750 mb. CAPE values reach between 3000 and 4000 J/kg, and the LFC and LCL are relatively close to each other and close to the surface, suggesting severe thunderstorms occurring tonight here in Columbia and points east with all modes of severe weather possible. Hail will be the most significant threat from these storms. The GFS shows most of the thunderstorm activity occurring south of the forecast area, while the NAM keeps the thunderstorm activity further into the forecast area. In this case, I think the NAM will have a better handle on the placement of the storms.

Heading into Friday morning, circulation moves out of the region, taking the moisture associated with it at 700 mb and 850 mb. Skies will go from mostly cloudy in the morning to partly cloudy by the afternoon. The shortwave upper-level trough will also pass to the east of the region, bringing slightly cooler temperatures in the low 60s and a wind shift to the northwest. Heading into Friday night, the shortwave trough will lift just north of the region, switching winds to the southwest, bringing temperatures around 70 degrees heading into Saturday. There is some moisture at 700 mb and 850 mb heading into Saturday afternoon. However, with no divergence aloft, CAA over the region, and with no vorticity max over the region, no precipitation is expected, just cloudy skies.

Heading into Saturday night, a longwave trough begins to move into the region as seen at 250 mb. Then, the atmosphere completely dries out, as CAA will be dominant over the region. This will lead to clear conditions heading into Sunday morning.

Future forecast shifts should keep an eye on the longwave trough that will continue to move south heading into Sunday, with temperatures heading into the mid 50s.

-Thomas, Peine